Millions of people living in the Middle East wish for a peaceful, calm life without violence and drama. The worst year of war in the Middle East in modern times has once again shown that dreams of peace are impossible to achieve as long as deep political, religious and strategic fault lines remain unbridged. Once again, the Middle East is being reshaped by war.
The Hamas offensive was the result of a conflict that lasted for well over a hundred years. Hamas’s attack on the thinly-defended border was the worst day Israel had ever experienced.
Around 1,200 people were killed, mostly Israelis. Benjamin Netanyahu, Israel’s Prime Minister, called President Joe Biden to tell him that the state had never seen such brutality in its history, not “since World War II”.
Israel has been committing many atrocities against the Palestinians of Gaza since then. According to Hamas’ health ministry, nearly 42,000 people have died, mostly civilians. Gaza is a ruined mess. Israel is accused of genocide by Palestinians.
The war has spread. The war has spread.
A year of killings has stripped away layers and illusions. Benjamin Netanyahu believed that he could handle the Palestinian issue by not making concessions on their demand for self-determination.
The wishful thinking which had reassured Israel’s worried Western ally was gone. Leaders from the US, UK, and other countries had convinced themselves that Netanyahu could be persuaded, despite his opposition to a Palestinian state alongside Israel for all of his political career, to accept one in order to end the conflict.
Netanyahu’s refusal was a reflection of the widespread mistrust that Palestinians in Israel feel, as well as his ideology. It also sabotaged an ambitious American peace plan.
In President Biden’s ‘grand bargain,’ Israel would receive full recognition from Saudi Arabia, the most powerful Islamic country, if it allowed Palestinian independence. Saudi Arabia would be rewarded by a security agreement with the US.
The Biden plan failed at the first hurdle. Netanyahu said in February, that Hamas would receive a “huge reward” if it achieved statehood. Bezalel smotrich, an ultra-nationalist extremist in his cabinet, claimed that it would be a “existential danger” to Israel.
Hamas leader Yahya sinwar, who is presumed to still be alive somewhere in Gaza, had his own illusions. He must have thought, a year ago, that the rest Iran’s “axis” of resistance would join forces with Israel to destroy it. He was wrong.
Sinwar’s plans to attack Israel at 7 October were so secretive that they caught his enemies by surprise. He surprised even some of his own supporters. According to BBC sources, Sinwar may not have even shared his plans with the exiled political leadership of his own organisation in Qatar. One source claimed that they had notoriously lax protocols for security, and were talking on open lines which could be easily heard.
Iran did not go on the offensive. It made it clear that it didn’t want a wider conflict, even as Israel invaded Gaza, and President Biden ordered American carrier-strike groups to move closer in order to protect Israel.
Hassan Nasrallah and Ayatollah Ali Khamenei – the supreme leader of Iran and his friend – restricted themselves instead to launching rockets at Israel’s northern borders. They said they would continue this until there was a ceasefire between Israel and Gaza. Israel evacuated over 60,000 people from the border. The majority of the targets were military. In Lebanon, Israel’s response to the crisis resulted in twice as many people fleeing.
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