Biden’s trip failed to provide the Ukraine with the long-term support it needs to win in its fight against Russia’s invasion.
U.S. president Joe Biden (L), and German President Frank Walter Steinmeier react when they shake hands in Berlin’s Bellevue Presidential Palace on October 18, 2024. (Ralf Hirshberger/AFP via Getty Images).
Joe Biden’s last European trip as president, if it is indeed his last, was billed as the final opportunity before the upcoming U.S. Presidential election to meet with world leaders, cement long-term support of Ukraine, and work toward ending Russia’s full scale invasion launched more than two and a quarter years ago.
“Ukraine is facing a harsh winter.” Biden, as quoted by the Washington Post, told reporters on October 18 before the Berlin talks that we must maintain our resolve and effort.
“I know that the cost is high. It pales in comparison with the cost of living in an aggressive world, where big states attack and bully small ones, simply because they can.
According to a joint press release released by the White House and Paris, Berlin and London, the situation in Ukraine and the support of Western allies appear to have remained largely the same as the day before Biden’s trip to Germany.
It did not offer any new pledges for game-changing support, beyond the current levels of weapons provided, or progress on key questions such as authorizing long range strikes inside Russia using Western weapons, NATO Membership, or implementation other requests within President Volodymyr Zelensky’s “Victory Plan.”
Instead, it repeated its condemnation of “Russia’s continued war against Ukraine” and highlighted the “discussions of” “plans” to “additional economic, humanitarian, and security assistance.”
The vague and noncommittal language of Ukraine’s Western Allies contrasts starkly against the increased diplomatic urgency which has consumed Kyiv over recent weeks.
The reasons for both are almost certainly the exact same – the U.S. Presidential election on November 5, uncertainty over who will succeed as leader of Ukraine’s top Western ally and how strong their support for Kyiv is.
Recent polls indicate that Biden’s vice president Kamala Harris is running in a dead heat with Donald Trump, the former U.S. president who has questioned the support for Ukraine, and has a long history of cozying-up to Russian President Vladimir Putin.
Kyiv’s biggest fear is that the U.S. will continue to support it under a Harris presidency, but at a pace that even Jens Stoltenberg, former NATO chief has said is too slow and gradual. The bigger fear is that support will be drastically cut under the Trump administration.
Zelensky, along with other Ukrainian officials, have been prompted by both scenarios to intensify their efforts to secure long-term support for defense and to push allies to relax restrictions on using their weapons to strike in Russia.
Zelensky has only had limited success so far.
Benjamin Bardos is a transatlantic security specialist from the Warsaw Institute. He told the Kyiv Independent that the elections were holding the U.S. political system hostage, as they always do.
Zelensky met Biden in late September to present his five point victory plan. This includes an invitation to Ukraine to join NATO by the end of the war and authorization to strike deep within Russia with Western long range weapons. The plan has also three classified sections that are shared with international partners.
Zelensky then toured Europe to present the plan, but has yet to secure the full support of either American or European leaders for the strategy.
Zelensky visited Germany a week prior to Biden’s trip, where he also met with Olaf Scholz, the German Chancellor. After their meeting, Germany and Belgium, Denmark and Norway announced a package of aid for Ukraine totaling 1.4 billion euro ($1.5 billion).
Berlin refuses to send long-range Taurus rockets or allow Ukraine use German weapons to target deep within Russia.
Scholz told the press in remarks before the meeting with Biden, Oct. 18, that “we are supporting Ukraine as strongly as we can while at the same we are making sure NATO doesn’t become a part of the war so that this war doesn’t turn into a bigger catastrophe.”
What was Biden’s agenda for the day?
Kurt Volker said Biden’s visit had two main objectives. The first goal was to show that Europe is also a major contributor to Ukraine’s fight against Russia. Trump, who since his first term as president has lambasted European nations for not contributing enough towards their defense, while relying on U.S. tax payers to provide security, has said repeatedly that Europe should do much more to end the conflict raging in their continent.
Volker’s second goal was to discuss how allies could strengthen the EU’s defence industry and provide Ukraine more weapons to counter Russia’s vast military strength.
Volker stressed Ukraine’s urgent requirement for more ammunition, longer range munitions, better air defense systems, as well as additional support on the Black Sea. He expressed doubts about whether these priorities are in line with the plans of the Biden administration, given the upcoming elections.
Volker said that Ukraine needed more ammunition, and it needed it faster. They also need to use the munitions we give them at a longer range.
“All of these things are on the Ukrainian list.” It’s just I’m not certain they’re on Biden’s list of things they intend to do,” Volker said.
Jake Sullivan, the U.S. National security advisor, said on October 17 that Biden would consult with German, French and U.K. leaders about what they had discussed during Zelensky’s European tour.
White House spokesperson John Kirby said later that Washington was still reviewing Ukraine’s Victory Plan and expected to make further commitments in terms of security at the next meeting between Western allies, within the Ukraine Defense Contact Group (also known as the regular Ramstein Meetings).
Biden originally planned to visit Germany on the weekend prior to participate in a Ramstein International Meeting to coordinate aid for Ukraine. This trip was cancelled due to Hurricane Milton, which hit Florida. According to the White House the Ramstein meeting will now be held online, in November. It is unclear whether it will take place before or after the U.S. election.
Catherine Sendak, Director of the Transatlantic Defense and Security Program of the Center for European Policy Analysis CEPA, said that Western leaders continue to discuss what parts of Ukraine’s Victory Plan they support or wish to modify. She also said that the issue of a long-range strike against Russia using weapons provided by the West is “a hot-topic.”
“I think it’s very important to focus on this issue again in the fall because there is such a lull of conversation in the Western World about Ukraine, due to the (U.S. elections) and many other things,” said Sendak.
The U.S. already said that Ukraine shouldn’t be expecting a formal NATO invite soon, as there is still no consensus between allies.
Sullivan stated that although the NATO summit held in the summer reaffirmed Ukraine’s membership, there is still a lot of work to be done, including “reforms” and “security conditions” being met.
Sullivan said that the reforms include “the institutionalization” of the security apparatus for Ukraine.
US aid for Ukraine elections
Trump has said he would be less willing than Biden, to provide military assistance to Ukraine and suggested that the U.S. shouldn’t defend NATO allies that don’t pay a fair share. This has led to concerns about possible global alliance shifts should he win the presidency.
When asked whether Biden had “Trump-proofed” the U.S. Government for a possible Trump presidency, Sullivan responded that Biden was working to make the U.S. commitment to Ukraine “sustainable for the long-term.”
“Since President Biden does not run for office, he does not need to be in the United States to campaign. He has the opportunity to sit with world leaders and discuss some significant support and help,” said Sendak.
According to Volker, Biden’s trip to Germany is unlikely to result in major decisions regarding the support for Ukraine, or the implementation of key points from Zelensky’s “Victory Plan,” such as an invitation to NATO or permission for long range strikes.
“The main reasons are the same as they always have been — fear of escalation. He said that he was afraid of nuclear use …,” and that Russia would see this as NATO attacking Russia directly. His comments refer to Biden’s long-standing fear that Russia would drag allies into a war by launching nuclear missiles on Ukraine.
Biden’s administration will likely postpone any significant decision to increase support for Ukraine until after the U.S. elections, also because they are wary of Trump accusing the administration of pushing the country into World War III which could hurt Kamala’s Harris campaign.
“It’s a political argument,” Volker said of Trump’s election campaign rhetoric that claimed U.S. support for Ukraine against Russia’s invasion risks escalation into a global war. Volker said that Trump’s election rhetoric, which claimed that U.S. backing for Ukraine against Russia invasion could escalate into a war on a global scale, was a political argument.
Bardos cited a Republican backlash against Zelensky’s September visit to Pennsylvania, an important swing state, as a reason why congressional approval of foreign aid for the moment is “off-the-table”.
Bardos says that any short-term U.S. assistance will likely come from President Drawdown Authority. This authority had about $2.8 billion left for the fiscal year at the end of September.
Sendak, while pointing out that U.S. involvement in European security and assistance to Ukraine would not likely come to an abrupt halt if Trump were to become president, said the EU must still play a greater role in ensuring Ukraine’s continued aid. She added that not enough has been done to strengthen the defense industry of the union.
Bardos warned that EU resources will not be enough without the continued large support of the U.S.
“While EU member states have significant defense industries, it is close to impossible for them to fill the role of America without a comprehensive overhaul in each member state’s defense industry and forming a front within the EU. This, as far as the current politics go, is highly unlikely.” he added.
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