**Russia May Launch Large-Scale War on Europe Within 5 Years**
A Danish intelligence report warns that Russia may find an opportunity to launch a large-scale war on Europe within five years. This is if Moscow perceives NATO as militarily weakened or politically divided.
The report, published by the Danish Defense Intelligence Service (DDIS), states that Russia sees itself in conflict with the West and is preparing for a war against NATO. However, no decision has been made to initiate such a war. Russia is building its capacity to make this choice if deemed necessary.
**Warnings from Western Leaders**
This warning comes amid a series of dire warnings from Western leaders and defense officials about the threat emanating from Russia. Many are concerned that Europe is not prepared for a large-scale conflict with Russia.
The DDIS report notes that fracturing among alliance members could present an opportunity for Moscow to capitalize, particularly if the United States is unwilling to protect its European allies.
**US President Trump’s Comments Spark Outrage**
U.S. President Donald Trump sparked international outrage in February 2024 when he said he would urge Russia to do “whatever the hell they want” to NATO member countries failing to meet defense spending criteria. This declaration indicated his disregard for the alliance’s collective defense principle.
Since being inaugurated, Trump has raised the ire of NATO allies by not ruling out using military force to gain control of Greenland and using economic coercion to force Canada to become a state.
**Russia’s Military Capabilities**
The DDIS report assessed that Russia may be able to wage war with a neighboring country within six months if it is able to reallocate military resources from Ukraine in the event of a frozen conflict or the end of the war. The report also concluded that Moscow poses a regional threat to Baltic states within two years and a large-scale war with Europe in five years, presuming the U.S. does not intervene.
**NATO’s Response**
The report acknowledges that the evolution of the Ukraine war will likely dictate Russia’s future intention. It is unlikely that Russia could sustain both the war in Ukraine and a simultaneous war with NATO.
On Dec. 12, European NATO foreign ministers began discussing a plan to gradually increase the alliance’s defense spending target from 2% of their GDP to 3% by 2030. Incoming U.S. President Trump called for an even more radical increase, up to 5% of GDP.
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