Ukraine’s intelligence agency has predicted that Russia’s military will collapse by 2026, as tank reserves are depleted and production is halted.
Exclusives
Military Personnel
ISW: Russians take three villages near Kurakhove and advance in Selydove. Ukrainians gain ground on the Kursk Oblast. Russian forces successfully conducted mechanized attacks near Kurakhove.
Drones attack distilleries across Russia. Ukrainian UAVs allegedly targeted Russian alcohol production in the oblasts of Tula, Tambov and Voronezh, damaging factory structures.
The approximate loss of weapons and military equipment by the Russian Armed Forces since the beginning of the invasion until the present is 22 OCT 2024.
* Personnel: 681580 (+1350)
* Tanks: 9079 (+8)
* APV: 18199 (+24)
* Artillery systems 19623 (+34).
* MLRS: 1234 (+2)
* Anti-aircraft systems: 981
* Aircraft: 369
* Helicopters: 329
* UAV: 17404 (+71)
* Cruise missiles: 2625 (+1)
* Warships/boats: 28
* Submarines: 1
* Vehicles and fuel tank: 27111 (+77).
Intelligence and Technology
Russia converts nuclear forces personnel into infantry due to a shortage of manpower. A Russian infantry unit formed from Strategic Missile Forces is now fighting in Kursk oblast.
International
Budanov: The first North Korean troops deployed to Russia’s Kursk on Wednesday. North Korea, which has a military force of more than 1 million soldiers and is reportedly sending 12,000 troops to Russia for training in preparation for combat operations in Ukraine, has sent its troops.
South Korea could supply weapons to Ukraine as Pyongyang sends troops into Russia. South Korea is considering providing lethal military assistance for Ukraine in light of reports that North Korean soldiers are being trained in Russia to be used against Ukraine.
UK pledges PS 2,26 bn in military loan for Ukraine, backed by proceeds from frozen Russian assets. The £2.93 billion is Britain’s contribution towards the $50 billion G7 support package.
Euroactiv: Finland urges Germany not to have reservations about Ukraine. Scholz, the German leader, is against Ukraine receiving Taurus missiles and opposes Ukraine joining NATO on a fast track. He fears an “escalation.”
Petraeus, the former CIA chief, calls for increased tactical missile support for Ukraine. Petraeus warned after the US announced a $400-million aid package during Austin’s Kyiv trip that more support was crucial to stop Russian advances.
India has secured the release of 85 citizens who were in the Russian Army. 20 more are still awaiting discharge. India has announced the release of 85 of its citizens who were allegedly recruited by Russia’s army under false pretenses. There are ongoing efforts to discharge 20 more.
South Korea is considering sending personnel to Ukraine, as the North deploys troops in Russia. Seoul may also be considering supplying lethal weapons for Ukrainian forces.
Poland will request access to the secret annexes to Zelenskyy’s “Victory Plan”. Bartoszewski, Polish Deputy FM, says Poland should have access to them. He cites Warsaw’s vital military aid and its future role in Ukraine’s reconstruction.
Humanitarian and social impact
Three civilians, including a 14-year old girl, are killed in a Russian strike on Sumy. Ukraine kills 42/60 Shaheds. Anna Kushnariova was killed by a drone attack from Russia on Sumy, along with her mother and aunt.
UN: Since the beginning of Russia’s war, Ukraine’s population has dropped by 10 million. It’s a population decline of about 25% since February 2022. This is due to 6.7 million refugees in other countries, low fertility rates and war casualties.
WSJ: Clans of chechen warlord Kadyrov profit from the captured Ukrainian steel plant at Mariupol. A son of Kadyrov’s trusted lieutenant oversees the operations at the steel mill in occupied Mariupol. He exports steel and scrap metals to Russia while looting equipment worth millions.
Political and Legal Developments
Investigation reveals shadow fleet insurers for Russia’s oil tanks. Bloomberg and Danwatch expose a shift of Russian oil tanker insurers to firms from Cameroon, Kyrgyzstan and domestic providers. Western sanctions force vessels to operate in shadow.
Bloomberg: Documents reveal Russian spying infiltrated Georgian state organizations amid push for EU and NATO membership. Bloomberg obtained documents that reveal that between 2017 and 2020, Russian intelligence gained access to sensitive information from Georgian energy companies as well as media platforms and key government ministries.
Ukraine exposes official in corruption scandal involving fake disability certificates. After a corruption probe revealed that high-ranking officials were involved in the acquisition of fake disability certificates, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy ordered the dissolution the Medical-Social Expertise Commissions of Ukraine.
Kostin, Ukraine’s top prosecutor, resigns in the wake of a scandal involving government officials and draft-dodging. The incident, in which prosecutors and state officials are implicated, has led to a national investigation.
EU demands investigation into death of Ukrainian Journalist Roshchyna and urges Russia to cease targeting media. The European Commission has demanded a full investigation of the circumstances surrounding the death of Ukrainian Viktoria Rosahchyna, who died in Russian custody.
New Developments
Zelenskyy compares the Russian economy to Titanic sinking. He criticizes delayed European sanctions implementation, costing Ukraine valuable time.
Here is the daily review for Monday, 21 Oct 2024.
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