Ukraine is actively adjusting their strategic planning, as US officials consider President Zelenskyy’s victory blueprint “unrealistic and overly reliant on assistance.”
Exclusives
Military Personnel
Russia deploys assault units near Berdiansk front in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. According to Petro Andriushchenko, the advisor to the Mariupol mayor, increased movement of Russian forces including assault units is observed along Berdiansk’s axis towards the frontline.
Fire breaks out at Russian missile research center in Moscow Oblast. Eyewitnesses said that thick smoke billowed out of the facility while the fire consumed an testing workshop.
Ukrainian defense expert: Frontline is cracking, but not collapsing. According to Serhii Zighurets of the Defense Experts Association, despite signs of strain the frontline is not collapsing in Ukraine.
Frontline report: Ukrainian forces stop the advance of Russian recon units in Toretsk by using coal mine heights. Russian reconnaissance teams infiltrating the Zabalka district of Toretsk were caught and destroyed by Ukrainian artillery that was precisely coordinated from terrikon observations posts. The failed advance prevented Russians securing an important secondary logistics route in Toretsk Donetsk oblast.
Forbes: Ukraine demolishes high-rises in Toretsk to dislodge Russian troops in urban combat. Ukrainian engineers are demolishing high-rise buildings occupied by Russian forces in Toretsk, marking a significant change in urban warfare tactics.
ISW: Russian advancements in eastern Ukraine accelerate but remain slow. According to a new ISW study, Russian forces advance at only 14 square kilometers per week in September 2024. This compares to 1,265 sq km per day in March 2022.
The approximate loss of weapons and military equipment by the Russian Armed Forces since the beginning of the invasion until the present date is 30 OCT 2024.
* Personnel: 693640 (+1560)
* Tanks: 9137 (+8)
* APV: 18433 (+29)
* Artillery systems : 19955 (+38).
* MLRS: 1242 (+1)
* Anti-aircraft systems: 986
* Aircraft: 369
* Helicopters: 329
* UAV: 17979 (+40)
* Cruise missiles: 2625
* Warships/boats: 28
* Submarines: 1
* Vehicles and fuel tank: 27840 (+91).
Intelligence and Technology
The EurAsian Times : North Korean soldiers will be shocked by the drone warfare in Ukraine. North Korean troops in Russia’s war are likely to encounter drone warfare, specifically Ukrainian kamikazes. This experience is likely to be a shock, as North Korean forces have never encountered modern drone tactics.
Norway will provide Ukraine with $ 118 Million in F-16 equipment by the end of the year. The Norwegian government announced that it would allocate over $118 million for the purchase of essential equipment and armaments to be used by F-16 fighters headed for Ukraine. According to Defense Minister Bjorn Aild Gram, the first deliveries are expected before the new year.
Scientist who helped Russia improve Shahed Drones is detained by Ukraine’s Security Service. Ukraine’s Security Service has arrested a Kharkiv engineer, 72, accused of secretly helping Russia improve its fleet of Shahed drones.
Ukraine and South Korea have agreed to intensify their intelligence cooperation as a response to North Korea’s involvement with Russia’s war. Ukraine and South Korea agreed to increase bilateral contacts and share vital information in order to counter the growing threat posed by North Korean forces supporting Russia.
International
Expert warns that the war in Ukraine could reach a point of no-return due to Russian gains. Analyst noted that it is crucial to maintain Ukraine’s fighting readiness.
Austin: Even with North Korean assistance, Putin cannot defeat Ukraine. US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin reported that North Korean troops in Russian uniforms, using Russian equipment and wearing Russian clothing have been spotted near Ukraine.
Zelenskyy claims that the international response to North Korean forces in Russia is not strong enough. Volodymyr Zelenskyy, president of Ukraine, has issued a warning on the consequences of North Korean involvement in Russia’s conflict with Ukraine. He has compared the situation to early days of Crimea occupation.
Nordic countries back Zelenskyy’s victory plan and pledge to continue military support for Ukraine. The Ukraine-Nordic Summit included Denmark, Iceland Norway, Finland, Sweden and Ukraine. It resulted in support for Ukraine’s path towards NATO membership and measures to continue sanctions pressure on Russia.
Bipartisan lawmakers ask Biden to allow Poland to shoot down Russian missiles above Ukraine. Bipartisan leaders from the US Helsinki Commission wrote a letter asking President Biden to allow Poland to shoot down Russian missiles above Ukraine.
Ursula von der Leyen says that Putin’s war poses the greatest threat to European security. Ursula von der Leyen, President of the European Commission, has stressed the urgent need for Europe to unite in order to respond to the military and financial challenges posed by Russia’s aggression.
US sanctions 275 entities for Russia tech support. The US Department of the Treasury announced new sanctions against companies and individuals in 17 countries for their support of Russia’s military.
NYT: Limited Western support forces Ukraine to find Plan B. US officials deemed Zelenskyy’s victory plan unrealistic, too dependent on aid and too reliant upon the availability of missiles. In addition, the secret point of the plan also sought long-range Tomahawks, an “unfeasible” request, according to US officials.
Zelenskyy says that Ukraine will rely on European assistance if US aid decreases after the November elections. Zelensky, ahead of the US presidential elections, expressed confidence in Europe as a key supporter for Ukraine, underlining the continent’s military and economic advantage over Russia.
Lithuania, Ireland, and Italy will sign agreements for Ukraine’s recovery. Ireland will spend 3 million euros on building bomb shelters around Ukrainian schools. Scandurra Studio Architettura in Italy will prepare plans to restore damaged educational facilities.
Pro-Russian Slovak PM Fico describes Moscow visit for WWII Victory Day “an honour”. Robert Fico said on Russian state-funded TV that it was his “personal duty to attend Russia’s 2025 Victory Day Celebrations”.
Humanitarian and social impact
Kadyrov claims Ukrainian prisoners of war were used as human shields on military sites in Chechnya. On 29 October, an Ukrainian drone attack targeted a military academy in Gudermes named after Russian President Vladimir Putin. This was the first attack against the territory of Chechnya.
Nine injured in Russian attack on Kyiv at night. Nine people, including a girl aged 11, were injured after drone debris ignited a fire early on 30 October in a Kyiv apartment building.
Political and Legal Developments
Sentsov, a former political prisoner, says that Putin does not want peace talks with Ukraine. He believes that Ukraine is not in a position where it can demand anything.
Kremlin denies that it has held talks with Ukraine about abandoning energy attacks. Moscow has denied reports that it was in talks with Kyiv about ending its campaign of attacks on Ukraine’s power plants. A Kremlin spokesperson called the claims “unrelated” to reality.
The major Russian gas project Arctic LNG-2 is stalled due to sanctions. The $25 billion Arctic LNG-2 project in Russia has ceased operations due to sanctions.
FT reports that Ukraine and Russia are in talks to stop strikes on energy plants. According to Ukrainian officials, both Moscow and Kyiv reduced their attacks on energy plants as part of a intelligence services agreement.
Biden says Ukraine must strike back if North Korean forces cross into Ukraine. President Biden has expressed support for Ukraine’s military action if North Korean forces cross into Ukraine. This comes amid reports that North Korean troops are stationed in Russia’s Kursk Oblast.
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