What new world order can you expect? Will the world‘s largest states work together to create it? Before we delve into the future world order, let’s note that human agency is important, even if it’s difficult to measure. The personalities and ideas of individuals will be important, and building the future world order will be a competitive and difficult process. It will also be difficult to predict.
Unmistakable signs of erosion of post-Cold War global order are evident. There are two main changes in the current global power balance. The first is horizontal and involves a return to normalcy in the economic and political power of the Asian countries, led by China. Second, there is a vertical shift due to liberal overextension and multiple changes such as those in the technology that allow non-state actors become geopolitically disruptive.
The US-led global order should have been uncontested for decades after the Soviet rival was gone. In reality, America’s unipolarity has led to its decline. The unrivaled prestige of the United States in terms of its economic and military might, which allowed it to operate outside the norms that it had set, has now turned against it. Long-time allies no longer feel the need to strictly follow Washington’s rules. There are vacillations in US alliances and turmoil on the global stage, which challenge the very premise of US power and liberal idea.
It is inevitable that a new order will emerge. The new system will be less US-driven, and more chaotic. Even if the world order is imperfect, it’s still better than no order. With enough military power, even a troubled world order can be improved over time. The logic of the previous orders will be followed in the construction of a new one. It will reflect then existing power balance. Great powers usually create an order that suits their interests and ambitions. But not all great power agree on a set rules. Those who are opposed will tend to create a different vision. Orders are therefore inherently incomplete. There are always loopholes that cause deviations from a set of rules. Incompleteness leads to debates about the need to rethink or renegotiate system principles. In a sense, the world order itself cannot be static. Its inertia would make it impossible to operate. This means that the current evolution towards a new global order is a natural and evolutionary move.
Scholars are more or less in agreement that the future of the world will revolve around China and the US. Multipolarity is not ruled out, but it could be a very uneven one where Russia, India, and other countries will serve as geopolitical pillars but with limited capabilities compared to China and America. The regional orders that Moscow and Delhi will build, in a certain way, will reflect Beijing’s or Washington’s geopolitical interest.
The US power will likely remain fundamental in the coming decades, despite the fact that it may be diluted and heavily blunted. It is more likely that the US will try to limit its involvement in far-flung countries and instead recalibrate its foreign policy towards big challenges. This will be accompanied by a growing focus on the US’s major advantage: a string of trusted allies. Despite vacillations the liberal-democratic connection is a strong one.
The return of the great powers competition is closely related to the likely resurgence in spheres of power. This is a resurgence in authoritarianism, which has now transformed into an illiberal threat underpinned by capitalism — the weapon normally associated with liberalism. The return of the great power competition means that the West as a collective will not face a single threat in the future, but a series of interconnected global challenges. As the reaction to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022 has shown, mounting a resolute and unified response will be a double challenge, but not impossible.
Emil Avdaliani: Analysis
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