**Trump’s Foreign Policy Puzzles Europe**
Europeans are struggling to understand the motives behind US President Donald Trump‘s foreign policy. After all, what he really wants is often unclear, making it hard for them to devise a strategic response.
Traditionally, Europeans have viewed American foreign policy through two lenses: either a US administration is Atlanticist, which means everything is okay; or it is isolationist, which spells trouble. But Trump doesn’t fit into these categories. He’s not an Atlanticist because he thinks NATO offers too little value for the cost to the US and that Europeans are free riders. However, this criticism has been made by other American leaders before.
**Trump: An Imperial Nationalist**
Trump is better described as an imperial nationalist, similar to many 19th-century American leaders. He believes America deserves all the benefits of being a hegemony without any costs. His preferred policies, such as tariffs and territorial expansion, are reminiscent of this era. Europeans may find these policies absurd today, but they have historical resonance in the US.
**Trade Wars and Territorial Ambitions**
Trump’s proposal to create an “External Revenue Service” would allow him to redistribute tariff revenues among states and political clients as he sees fit. He has used similar tactics before, such as establishing a fund within the Department of Agriculture to compensate those harmed by China’s retaliatory measures against American soybean exporters.
The ultimate goal is to use tariffs to pressure partners that are heavily dependent on the US market: Mexico, Canada, and Europe. Trump has also expressed territorial ambitions, wishing to “get Greenland” and make Canada the “51st state.” This commercial pressure is a means of achieving territorial expansion, just as it was for the US in the 19th century.
**Europe’s Response**
The European Union should not ignore this challenge. Instead of praying that it won’t happen, they should take action. The EU has an Anti-Coercion Instrument that allows retaliatory tariffs to be imposed against any state that uses trade restrictions for geopolitical purposes. If Trump decides to intensify his pressure on Denmark through high tariffs, the EU will have no choice but to trigger this mechanism.
The Danish government should not play the appeasement card either. By showing fear, they are inviting Trump to be even more aggressive.
**A New Balance of Power**
Europe can no longer view Trump’s foreign policy through a binary lens. They need to take a more nuanced approach and prepare for the consequences of his actions. Russia is likely to benefit from this new balance of power, so Europeans should not be surprised if the White House and the Kremlin negotiate the future of Ukraine behind closed doors.
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