**Europe Must Take Charge of Its Security**
The old U.S.-led security order has changed dramatically. As Russia’s full-scale war against Ukraine enters its fourth year, peace talks have begun without clarity on Europe’s or Ukraine’s roles.
For lasting peace on the continent, Europe must take responsibility for its own security – starting in Ukraine. The outcome of peace talks depends on battlefield expectations. If Russia believes it has a fighting chance, it will not keep its promises. Even after a settlement, Europe would remain vulnerable to Russian aggression without credible deterrence.
**Ukraine Can End the War**
Giving Ukraine the upper hand over Russia is less difficult than many expect. Ukrainians have shown that Russia can be beaten despite support from North Korea and Iran. Russia has suffered an estimated 850,000 casualties since its full-scale invasion.
Russia’s military fragility and economic decline mean time is not on its side. Interest rates have soared to 20% and inflation to 10%. Despite spending 30% of its budget on defense, Russia’s artillery advantage has fallen from 10:1 in 2022 to 1.5:1.
**The West Can Help Ukraine**
By comparison, the West is an economic behemoth. The combined GDP of countries that provided military aid to Ukraine was nearly $70 trillion in 2024, compared to roughly $2 trillion for Russia. Europe’s NATO members alone have over 10 times Russia’s GDP.
However, despite its economic advantages, Russia has spent 40% more on destroying Ukraine than the combined West has spent defending it. The only way for Europe to ensure its relevance is by investing in its own security in Ukraine – this is rational self-interest.
**A $40 Billion Investment**
New research suggests that an additional $40 billion per year would likely match Russia’s war spending and deliver Ukraine a battlefield advantage. This is no more expensive than other fiscal interventions, like those after the Global Financial Crisis and Covid-19.
To be sure, meaningful investment must be accompanied by ironclad, mutual security guarantees. By following the Danish model of procuring equipment directly from Ukraine, for Ukrainians, Europe could achieve scale at lower cost while drawing on lessons from its most experienced military.
**A Lasting Peace**
All wars end. Russia’s war in Ukraine will end too, but how it ends will determine whether it starts again. To ensure lasting peace, Europe must invest in its own security, and the best way is by defending Ukraine. It is vanishingly rare in world politics that right and wrong are so obvious.
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