On May 29, 2024, a group of demonstrators gathered in front of the Parliament building in Georgia, waving both Georgian and EU flags in the air. The photo, taken by Guram Muradov for Civil.ge, captured the tense atmosphere as the country prepared for its parliamentary elections.
In light of these upcoming elections, Laura Thornton, Senior Director for Global Democracy Programs at the McCain Institute, has released an assessment of the situation in Georgia. Thornton, who previously served as the director of the National Democratic Institute (NDI) in Georgia from 2014 to 2020, has identified and analyzed potential risks to the integrity of the elections.
This assessment is a follow-up to a report published by the German Marshall Fund (GMF) in May 2024, which also highlighted potential risks to the elections. The report is based on a mission organized by the Black Sea Trust (BST) of GMF and the Rondeli Foundation, which took place from September 2-8 in Tbilisi. The mission team met with various leaders and representatives from opposition parties, NGOs, media outlets, election monitoring organizations, and foreign diplomats. However, members of the ruling party, GD, refused to meet with the delegation.
The report examines the current electoral landscape in Georgia and outlines potential risks to the conduct and integrity of the upcoming elections. It also presents different scenarios that could unfold and provides recommendations for actions that the U.S. and EU should take before and after the elections.
One key finding from the mission is that the risks identified in May, such as the implementation of the new Foreign Agents Law, attacks on civil society and media, and the government’s failure to implement promised electoral reform, still remain. In fact, the government has even pledged further autocratic measures, including the elimination of all opposition parties and the imprisonment of critics from civil society, media, and the opposition.
The report also highlights the belief of many civil society, media, and opposition representatives that Georgian voters have turned against the ruling party and view the election as a choice between the West and Russia. However, this belief is contradicted by those who closely track voter opinions and spend time outside of the capital city. They report that the top concerns for most Georgians are the economy and jobs, not EU membership, and that the ruling party’s message of “prosperity vs. sanctions” is resonating with voters. Additionally, the government’s threat of war if the opposition wins is also swaying some voters.
The report also warns of potential post-election instability and urges the U.S. and EU to take action to prevent this. It emphasizes the need for international support and monitoring to ensure a fair and transparent electoral process.
In conclusion, the report paints a concerning picture of the upcoming elections in Georgia and calls for action to protect the integrity of the process. It is clear that the current government’s actions and rhetoric have created a tense and polarized atmosphere, and it is crucial for the international community to play a role in ensuring a democratic outcome.
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