The war in Ukraine has reached a critical point. In an article for the Atlantic Council, Mykola Bielieskov said that if no action is taken in the next few months, Russia will continue to gain ground and the military situation would reach a point where it was impossible to reverse.
The current military situation in Ukraine has been shaped by a number of key factors. These include Russia’s strategy to prolong the conflict with a war of attrition, which aims for Western support to be outlasted, and gaining more land in eastern Ukraine using encirclement tactics. Ukraine’s resilience can be boosted by integrating the military aid of Western allies, and adapting strategies that disrupt Russian supply lines. Kyiv needs the Western support to continue defending its land against Moscow troops. Both countries are under economic pressures which affect their military capabilities. High casualty rates in both countries also have a significant impact on morale and strategic decisions.
“Ukraine needs are well-known and include a significant rise in military aid as well as the lifting of restrictions on using Western weapons. It is crucial to maintain Ukraine’s combat capability and increase costs on the Kremlin, while convincing Putin of the unwavering support from the West for Kyiv,” the expert said.
“Crucially, Moscow’s localized victories in the Donbas are slowly undermining the morale of the Ukrainian public.” Regular reports of new Russian gains also weaken the resolve of Kyiv’s Western partners, and strengthen arguments against continuing military support for Ukraine,” explained the analyst.
“Moscow has recently persuaded North Korea that it will provide thousands more troops. Putin does not want another politically risky mobilization. He has so far found solutions which will allow Russia’s offensive operations in Ukraine to continue without mobilising hundreds of thousands Russian civilians”, said Bielieskov
“Much depends on the outcome of the United States Presidential election on 5th November. Whoever wins the race for White House will inherit a conflict in Ukraine, which requires their urgent attention. A Russian victory would signal the decline and transformation of the geopolitical scene for decades to come.
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