In a speech at Chatham House the former Commander-in Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Valerii Zaluzhnyi stressed the urgent need for Ukraine to have security guarantees amid its ongoing struggle for independent. He called for NATO to be a key factor in ensuring long-term stability of the West.
Speech by former Commander in Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Valerii Zaluzhnyi, delivered at the Royal Institute of International Affairs.
Good morning. I’m happy to welcome you to this wonderful place and thank you for the invitation. It’s my first time in this place, and I feel honored to be amongst such intelligent and distinguished individuals.
Every meeting I have with my friends or partners begins and ends with me expressing my gratitude for the support they provide. I am grateful that we continue to battle, and I hope that we will persevere and win – not just for Ukraine but also for the civilized world. This victory will be the hallmark of this century.
I will discuss some scientific concepts and definitions. I will be honest and sincere. I will also be speaking as Valerii Zaluzhnyi. I have experience in both military and diplomatic matters. I will share my personal opinions and thoughts which, I hope will help us to understand the future that lies ahead and the steps we must take – not just for Ukraine to win this war.
I would like to start by presenting some facts that we use in Ukraine to understand scientifically what is happening. We will discuss my own empirical judgments, and the evidence that I have gathered. These judgments cannot be considered scientific. However, you can decide whether they are based on reality or scientific principles.
* I’d like to begin by expressing my first empirical judgement and hope that you agree with me. First, we must acknowledge the existence of the Collective West. It is real, and I consider it to be a grouping of developed Western countries, with highly developed economies and primarily developed democracies. They also have their own security system such as NATO. It is true that the Collective West has a security system, which primarily protects developed economies and democracies.
* Secondly I believe that there are some territorial countries with a concentration of power. In these countries there is no democracy. Their economies are usually based on mineral deposits or are subjected to planned regulation. In these countries, everything is designed to serve or maintain the interests of the ruling party, leader, or movement.
* Thirdly I believe that there are countries around the world who, due to historical events and the wishes of their own people have been able to break free from authoritarian regimes and empires. Some of these countries were fortunate enough to be accepted into the Collective West. Others, however, continue to struggle to join the civilized nations due to the opposition they face from these authoritarian regimes. These countries, who are fighting to join what is called the Western world, also risk losing their independence. Some countries, which I will not name, have already lost their independence. Ukraine, my home country, is also fighting for its independence from an authoritarian regime. This is a short statement and I hope that you will share my perspective.
* My fourth judgement and statement is very important to understand the essence of the conflict in Ukraine. Ukraine has been fighting its independence with weapons for the past ten years. The full-scale conflict has been going on for nearly three years. More than 30,000 people have died and hundreds of thousands have been injured. We continue to fight. It’s hard not to agree. We Ukrainians want to live in a civilized Western society, in freedom. I hope we can all understand this when we try to understand or identify the war in Ukraine. Despite the difficulties we face, our right to a future is still intact. By ignoring our wishes, our enemy denies our history, our culture, but most importantly, he seeks to physically destroy us, a nation that has its own culture and history. This is evident not only in stories from the past century. Let’s look at the Holodomor. We must also keep in mind the recent events in Bucha, Hostomel and the occupied territory. This makes any future peaceful coexistence unthinkable, and we therefore cannot consider any options for stopping the war based on intentions of mutual security.
* My fifth judgment: I personally believe that what is happening today in Ukraine is the logical result of the collective West’s reluctance, which declares first and foremost its democratic values. These are the logical results of the Collective West’s reluctance to influence the global system of security, taking advantage of weaknesses in the West, and as I see it, the United States. In 2008, Russia started its so-called “expansion”, creating a belt around its security area. Under the silence of this same Collective West in 2014, Russia began the war against Ukraine. It has now become the bloodiest conflict of the 21st Century in the heartland of Europe. It’s a proven fact.
* My sixth statement: Today, to keep the West afraid, Putin talks about red lines and nuclear arms. Western politicians, who are often held hostage to their own voters, talk repeatedly about the need to prevent escalation. This is a simple fact of life. The question is: Will this war be limited only to Putin’s desires in regard to Ukraine? The answer must come from Western politicians. They must also be honest with the voters.
* My seventh statement, and this is my opinion, is that the Collective West did not truly believe in Ukraine. The Western press, out of fear for Putin, gave Ukraine initially three hours and then three days before finally reaching the border of Ukraine. The Collective West, frightened of nuclear war or escalation – and I say this in my capacity as the former commander-in chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine – did not provide Ukraine the necessary amount of arms. In 2023, as a result of this failure, we were unable to make any significant progress in defeating Russia. We entered a protracted state of war as a result. I think it’s nearly impossible to find a way out this protracted conflict. I won’t dwell too much on this, but I do hope you have read my previous articles. I wrote those articles in order to help you better understand what is happening in Ukraine, because I think that in 2023 we missed the chance to end this war independently.
* My eighth judgment: This is a reality that affects all of us in this audience, and it applies to you. Please tell me if it is a secret now that China, North Korea and Iran have united behind Russia. Does anyone think that these countries are united against Ukraine? Let me be the one to disappoint you. Most of these countries do not even know where Ukraine lies. When we examine an organization such as BRICS and its expansion prospects, we have to ask: What about the Collective West. Is it still scared of escalation in the Middle East?
* This brings me up to my ninth point: war has changed, whether you like it or dislike it, and whether the weapon manufacturers with billions of dollars in contracts want it or hate it. As the former commander-in chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and Ukrainian analysts and generals, I can confirm this. Third parties cannot comment on this issue because they weren’t there, didn’t participate, and weren’t involved. But let me return to my original statement: The war has changed. There will not be a war like the one in 1953 – I am referring to the Korean War which ended in summer 2023, in Ukraine – when two professional armies each with more than a half million soldiers faced off on the battlefield. Western media and local generals laughed when robots entered the battlefield. By 2024, however, technology and artificial intelligence began to play an important role in warfare. It’s comforting to see that my previous writings have described this shift. Even in the United Kingdom there is a recognition that national defense strategies are evolving. NATO seems to have remained silent, and has not adapted to changes in global security. The organization still relies upon the principles and weapons inherited from the Korean War, despite the changes in warfare. The foundation of global security is still expensive weapons systems such as fighter jets, missiles, and aircraft carrier. In a war of mass proportions, however, the ability to produce these weapons systems will decrease, reducing their efficiency. Unfortunately, the future security of the world cannot be based solely on outdated technologies. These points have been addressed in my articles, but as a Ukrainian citizen, I want to emphasize what I believe is the most important message.
* The tenth and most important statement. As a Ukrainian citizen, I would like to share this with you. We have fought for our freedom for the past ten years and we are not a part of any group or proposed Russian Union. Our vision of future victory is straightforward: we must regain three basic things.
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