The presence of thousands of North Korean soldiers is not expected to tip the battlefield advantage in favor of Moscow, but they do highlight Russia’s desperation due to high war losses.
Sergei Lavrov, the Russian Foreign Minister, is welcomed by North Korean soldiers who wave their national flags after landing at Pyongyang’s airport on October 18, 2023. (Kim Won Jin / AFP)
This week, reports suggest that Russia’s war against Ukraine has reached a new phase. North Korea is no longer supplying weapons to Moscow but instead sending its own troops.
According to a Western diplomat who is familiar with the issue, the Kyiv Independent reported on October 15 that Pyongyang had sent 10,000 soldiers to Russia. However, it is unclear what type of soldiers these soldiers are.
On June 19, Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a strategic defence agreement with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un between Moscow and Pyongyang, further strengthening military ties between both countries.
North Korea has already provided Russia with artillery and ballistic missiles. But sending troops would be a significant geopolitical step up in their cooperation.
According to experts who spoke with the Kyiv Independent for now, it is a sign of Russian despair that could only have a limited effect.
The Kyiv Independent reported that “the disclosure that North Korean soldiers may appear on front line is directly a consequence of catastrophic Russian losses,” John Foreman CBE was the former U.K. defense attache to Moscow from 2019-2022.
“Their military efficiency is questionable, and they will be cannon-fodder for Ukrainian defenders.”
How large is North Korea’s military?
According to the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), the Korean People’s Army is the fourth-largest army in the world by number of members, with 1,280,000 in active service and 600,000.
Only China, India and the United States have larger standing armies. North Korea spent 36.32 percent of its gross domestic product in 2023 on defense.
North Korean society has a heavily militarized culture, and all citizens must serve — 10 years for men and 8 for women.
“National defense is a citizen’s highest duty and honor,” states Article 86 in the constitution.
North Korea’s arsenal is formidable and has alarmed the world for decades.
The extent of the country’s nuke weapons program is unknown, but it has been believed to have conducted at least six tests since 2006. It also has enough fissile materials for 40-50 nuclear rockets.
It has also tested intercontinental missiles (ICBMs), which are capable of carrying nuclear weapons, and have a range that is long enough to reach the U.S.
North Korea’s chemical weapons program is also widely believed. In 2017, Kim Jong Un’s older half-brother Kim Jong Nam was assassinated with the nerve agent VX in a plot widely believed to be orchestrated by Pyongyang.
Experts who spoke with the Kyiv independent said that North Korea’s exotic and deadly weaponry will not play a major role in Ukraine.
Christoph Bluth, professor of International Relations and Security at the University of Bradford, said that North Korea can provide two things.
The 1950s arsenal of ammunition is the other.
Many of these are already in Ukraine. The Times reported, citing Western intelligence, that earlier this month, half of the artillery shells Russia used in Ukraine were supplied by North Korea.
The recent warnings of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelesky make it clear that the relationship between Pyongyang, North Korea and Moscow now goes beyond shells and missiles.
“This is not just about transferring arms. Zelensky stated on October 13 that it was about transferring North Koreans to the occupying forces.
How dangerous are North Korean troops
According to Bluth it is difficult to accurately assess the effectiveness of North Korean forces, but their quality will likely be low.
“They spend a great deal of time in the military, but the equipment and training they receive are of questionable quality,” he said.
There is also the temptation to escape the authoritarian regime in North Korea. According to a report published by Ukrainska Pravda on October 15, citing Ukraine’s Intelligence Services, 18 people have already left their posts.
“So, not only could they be poor soldiers but they might also take the opportunity to leave if it presents itself,” Foreman stated.
What will they be used to?
According to two sources it is likely that North Korean troops, after training, will be initially deployed to Kursk Oblast in order to defend against Ukraine’s ongoing incursion, which was launched more than two month ago.
According to James Waterhouse of the BBC, citing an Ukrainian military source, Russia “is forming around 3,000 North Korean citizens near its border with Mongolia at Ulan-Ude”, to be deployed to Kursk Oblast.
In a post on Telegram, Andrii Kovalenko, the head of the counter-disinformation department at Ukraine’s National Security and Defense Council, added that it can’t be ruled out that they are later stationed in Russian-occupied areas of Ukraine.
Bluth said that North Korea’s manpower is what Russia desperately needs.
He says that while Russia’s disregard of soldiers and willingness to send men into “meat attacks” is well documented in the media, North Korea’s leadership has an even lower regard for human life.
“Kim Jong Un executed his own uncle. He said that he was basically killing as many as needed to remain in power.
“Life for North Korean conscripts, even in the absence of war, is brutal and harsh. The consequences of refusing to fight are dire.” In a briefing to the press on June 25, Pentagon spokesperson Pat Ryder stated that North Korean troops could become “cannon-fodder” if joined Russian forces in Ukraine.
To make a difference on the battlefield they would need to be far more numerous than has been reported.
According to the General Staff of Ukraine, Russia is losing over 1,000 men each day. This means that 10,000 North Korean soldiers would only fill a gap between a few weeks.
How worried should Ukraine citizens be?
Foreman says that he does not expect the reported numbers of North Korean soldiers to “shift the dial drastically” in Russia’s favour.
He said that the fact that Russia is borrowing money from North Korea and buying support is a clear indication of how far it has fallen in the past two and a quarter years.
Dr. Jenny Mathers warns Aberystwyth University’s Senior Lecturer on International Politics that this could be the beginning of North Korea sending its troops to Ukraine.
She said, “This could be just the first step — let’s send out a small amount and see how it works for both sides.”
“Can they integrate them? Can they find uses for these people, overcome language barriers, and logistical problems?” Can they manage this relatively small number and if they succeed, they may scale it up.
What’s in it For North Korea?
North Korea, already isolated on the world stage, has little to gain by joining the war against Ukraine. It will only anger Kyiv’s Western ally. But it can gain a great deal from deepening its relations with Russia.
Bluth points out that “Russia is a member of the U.N. Security Council, and has vetoed any resolutions relating to human rights in North Korea or weapons of mass devastation.”
North Korea has thrown its lot in with Russia at the moment because it is essentially isolating themselves from any sort of relaxation of tensions with either the U.S. and South Korea.
There are also the military benefits. Russia reportedly gave North Korea technology to help deploy spy satellites, tanks and aircraft in exchange for the ammunition it had already provided.
Bluth said that the deployment of troops would strengthen Pyongyang’s hand to obtain more military technology from Moscow. This includes missile guidance technology.
Sean Savett, spokesperson for the White House National Security Council, said on Oct. 15 that the U.S. is “concerned,” about reports of North Korean soldiers in Ukraine. He added: “Such an action would also indicate a higher level of desperation by Russia as it continues its brutal war against Ukraine and suffers significant casualties.”
Read More @ kyivindependent.com