A destroyed Russian tank lies in a wheat field covered in snow in the Kharkiv Region on February 22, 2023. This is during Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. (Anantolii Stepanov / AFP via Getty Images)
Editor’s Note: This article has been updated to reflect that the General Staff of Ukraine Armed Forces reported Russian tank losses exceeding 9,000.
The number of “tanks”, which Kyiv claims to have destroyed, has now passed the 9,000 mark.
According to the General Staff of Ukraine’s Armed Forces, the figure as of October 17 is 9,014.
The Russian army had around 3,300 tanks at the beginning of the full-scale invasion. This means that all the tanks that first drove into Ukraine, and then more, were destroyed over the course two-and-a half years.
Any figures should be treated as estimates, since it’s impossible to know exactly how many tanks Russia lost during its full-scale invasion.
Ukraine’s General Staff’s official count is plausible, but most likely misleading.
“The daily figures in Kyiv only mention tanks, but since it has a separate part for armored personal vehicles, it’s my understanding that they group main combat tanks and infantry fighting vehicle,” Sascha Brucmann, visiting researcher for defense and military analyses at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, told the Kyiv Independent.
How accurate are the Ukrainian figures
According to Bruchmann the Ukrainian figures are likely a combination of main battle tanks (MBTs), infantry fighting vehicles, and both.
The main battle tank, in general, is a classic tracked vehicle with an enormous cannon mounted on the turret. Modern Russian examples include T-90, and its much-vaunted T-14 Armata.
An IFV can be used to carry infantry and provide direct fire support. It can resemble a conventional tank, but with a smaller gun. BMP-3 is a modern Russian example.
Other sources, however, do.
A British Defense Intelligence assessment earlier this year stated that Russia had likely lost 2600 tanks and 4,900 IFVs since the full-scale invasion began, for a total loss of 7,500.
Oryx, an open-source investigative tool, has estimated that 3,446 tanks have been damaged or destroyed.
Oryx only publishes data that is visually verified and taken from open sources. The real number of Russian losses is likely to be much higher.
Bruchmann believes that the 9,000 figure is a realistic estimate. “If you compare the British figures to the Ukrainian numbers, they are very close,” Bruchmann said.
Even the most advanced and capable Russian tanks have been hammered on the battlefield.
Two Bradley infantry fighting vehicle, which have been in service since the 1980s, destroyed a T-90M in January.
How many tanks is Russia left with?
According to the Military Balance database, Russia had 3,330 operational tanks at the start of its full-scale attack.
The database included all tank models then used by the Russian military, including T-72s and T-80s and T-90s and their modifications.
The most recent figures on Russian tanks destroyed indicate that almost the entire fleet of tanks used by the Kremlin to begin the full-scale invasion has been destroyed.
The Kremlin had thousands of tanks stored, but it was forced to use them as the war continued far beyond the Kremlin’s original plans.
A report from September 2023 by the Institut Action Resilience, using OSINT data, calculated that Russia has an estimated maximum number of 7,000 tanks stored.
Can Russia replace lost tanks?
Russia has the capability to replace the tanks that it lost since February 2022. However, there is a huge caveat.
Experts say that while Russia can maintain a large number of tanks in the front, their quality is deteriorating.
Viktor Kevliuk, a retired military officer and expert in defense, told the Kyiv Independent that “the figure (of destroyed tanks), means that the enemy lost almost all the modern tanks it had at its beginning of the invasion.”
“The Russian industry’s ability to produce modern tanks is extremely limited. It produces only 100-200 tanks a year,” he says.
The majority of the tanks that are supplied to the front were restored machines from the 1960s. 1970s and 1980s.
Bruchmann told Kyiv Independent that the number of lost tanks is significant.
“Your tanks remain the spearhead of armored forces. If you run out, you lose a great deal of combat power and flexibility.”
Bruchmann continues, “If you run short of tanks, someone has to step in and bring that firepower to the battlefield. Someone has to take up that slack.”
Bruchmann cites the Kharkiv Counteroffensive of Ukraine in 2022 as a good example of what tanks are capable of.
In less than a month, Kyiv’s troops swept past Russian defenses and liberated 12,000 square kilometers.
Bruchmann says, “That was a fistful of tanks that caused this entire unraveling.” “Without tanks you don’t possess the same offensive capability, and you must adapt to that.”
Royal United Services Institute writes that Russia “delivers approximately 1,500 tanks per year to its forces” but adds “approximately 80 percent are not new production, but are instead refurbished or modernized from Russian War Stocks.”
Bruchmann says that a T-64, no matter how modernized it is, will not be able to do the same job as a T-90. He adds that the “trajectory of Russian losses” means the Kremlin’s situation will only worsen as Ukraine destroys newer tanks.
What does the war in Ukraine mean?
Some estimates suggest that by 2026 the Kremlin will not have the ability to replenish front-line units.
Bruchmann warns that it is not enough to think in terms of a simple trajectory of ever decreasing numbers.
“War is dynamic. So just putting the current number into a trajectory will not give us the correct story,” he says.
It’s hard to write that in two years Russia is going to lose the war due to a lack of tanks. That’s not what’s going to occur.
Tanks are most useful when used offensively. As Ukraine demonstrated last summer, Western allies still haven’t given Kyiv the resources it needs to launch a successful anti-Russian counteroffensive.
The Russian offensive is on, but its progress is slow and will only become slower as it loses tanks.
All of this contributes to a war that is increasingly attritional, and, because Ukraine cannot liberate any more land, it does not bode very well for Ukraine.
Bruchmann says that the move will either make it more expensive for Russia to expand or hinder its ability to do so.
“But if there’s anything the Russians have proven, it’s their willingness to take losses.”
Chris York is the news editor of the Kyiv Independent. He was the head of news for the Kyiv Post before joining the team. He spent almost a decade in Britain working for HuffPost UK. He holds a MA in Conflict, Development, and Security, from the University of Leeds.
Read More @ kyivindependent.com