The article discusses the potential scenarios for ending the war in Ukraine, with a focus on how Western powers can support Ukraine without sparking a larger conflict with Russia. The author highlights four key inflection points that will determine whether Ukraine can avoid spiraling toward a desperate peace or worse:
1. **The battlefield**: Whether Ukraine can stabilize its defense of the front line and bring Russia’s offensive surge to culmination.
2. **Trump’s approach**: How Trump will balance his desire for a quick peace with the need to be tough on Putin, given his team’s pro-Russian views.
3. **Putin’s calculus**: Whether Putin is interested in stopping the war on the battlefield and how he responds to Trump’s demands.
4. **European response**: Whether Europe will step up to support Ukraine and make a decisive long-term commitment to prevent a repeat invasion.
The author suggests that an air defense coalition could be a key way for Western powers to project strength without directly engaging Russian forces. They also emphasize the importance of NATO membership as the final goal, with Ukraine’s security under Article 5 protection being a fundamental change in Putin’s calculus.
Some key points from the article:
* The war is unlikely to end quickly, and Western powers must be prepared for a longer-term commitment.
* Trump’s approach will be crucial in determining whether Russia stops the war quickly or continues its maximalist goals.
* Europe’s response will be critical in making a decisive long-term commitment to prevent a repeat invasion.
* NATO membership should remain the final goal for Ukraine, with Article 5 protection being essential for their security.
Overall, the article suggests that ending the war in Ukraine requires a combination of military, diplomatic, and strategic efforts from Western powers.