Russia is launching a financial tsunami as tiny Moldova moves closer to the EU. It has invested 1% of Moldova’s GDP in a sophisticated propaganda campaign and bribery. This unprecedented offensive is designed to derail the country’s European aspirations, and maintain Kremlin control.
Russia has launched a propaganda campaign unprecedented in Moldova. Moldova is a small post Soviet nation with 2.5 million people that borders Ukraine. Moscow’s influence on Moldova is still significant due to two factors. The breakaway region of Transnistria where Russia has had troops for more than 30 years and the pro-Russian autonomous region of Gagauzia.
The Kremlin has invested millions of dollars to influence two important October votes in Moldova. These are the presidential election and the referendum on enshrining Moldova’s European future into its constitution. Russia is less concerned about the presidential race where Maia Sandu, the popular incumbent, is likely to win a second term, but it is focused on the referendum.
In order to achieve this, Russia has inundated Moldova with money and bought influence among politicians, journalists on social media, voters, civil servants, and other influencers. Sergiy Sydorenko, from European Pravda, discussed these developments in a conversation with Valeriu Pasha of WatchDog.MD. We present a summary of this discussion.
The Kremlin strategy: Control through chaos
The Russian approach in Moldova does not involve backing specific candidates to fill leadership positions. It’s instead pursuing a wider strategy aimed at total power.
“For the Kremlin this is a conflict where the goal is to control the territory and not just influence,” explains Valeriu Paha. This hybrid attack against Moldova is part and parcel of Russia’s larger conflict with Ukraine and Western democracies.
According to Russia’s foreign-policy doctrine, post Soviet countries are seen as “lost territory” that must be reclaimed with any means. Belarus is an example of the success of this strategy, as it remains nominally independent while losing decision-making authority.
Pasha says that Belarus is Russia’s model for Moldova and Ukraine, as well as the Caucasus and Central Asia.
Russia’s influence in the country could be reduced within the next decade, due to Moldova’s pro Western leadership.
The Kremlin tactics: buying influence
The Kremlin takes advantage of Moldova’s weaknesses, especially its weak institutions and ineffective legal system. While Russia uses a variety of tactics, including espionage and bribery, its primary tool is widespread bribery in Moldova.
Expert: “Russian intelligence can easily influence politicians, journalists and influencers to influence voters, civil servants, and civil servants.”
Instead of focusing on the Russian World concept – a geopolitical ideologie promoting the Russian culture, language, and interests in the former Soviet states – the focus is fostering corrupt systems. The Kremlin is more likely to support politicians who embrace corruption, since they are more likely than other politicians to seek out support from Russia.
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