Russia Deploys Missiles to Belarus, But Threat Remains the Same
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) has reported that Russia‘s deployment of Oreshnik missiles to Belarus does not increase the threat of attacks on Ukraine or NATO member countries. This is despite Russian President Vladimir Putin‘s recent show of the missile and ongoing nuclear threats from Moscow.
Putin recently showcased the Oreshnik missile at a meeting with other leaders, but experts say this is part of a broader effort by the Kremlin to influence public opinion through “reflexive control” tactics. Russia’s Foreign Minister, Sergei Lavrov, has also claimed that a recent Russian strike on Dnipro City demonstrated Russia’s willingness to use any means to prevent Western success.
The ISW does not believe that Russia’s deployment of Oreshnik missiles changes the threat to Ukraine or NATO countries. Instead, they say it is likely a propaganda exercise designed to make Russia appear more capable than it actually is. Russia already has significant missile strike capabilities from multiple locations in mainland Russia and the Kaliningrad enclave.
These systems have been used regularly against Ukraine, suggesting that the Oreshnik deployment is not a significant military shift. The ISW says Russia’s long-term threat remains unchanged, with nuclear-capable missiles capable of striking Ukrainian and NATO targets already deployed and used in regular attacks on Ukraine.
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