The ISW suggests Russia’s partnership is with North Korea as part of a larger strategy to avoid a wider mobilization.
The Institute for the Study of War reported on 16th October that Russia could leverage its recent strategic partner agreement with North Korea in order to bolster its forces without resorting massive mobilization.
This assessment follows Ukrainian intelligence reports that claimed the formation of a North Korean battalion of 3,000 soldiers within the Russian 11th Airborne Brigade.
According to anonymous military intelligence sources cited by Ukrainian outlets Suspilne & Liga, this unit will be engaged in defensive operations within the Russian Oblast of Kursk. Sources also stated that “upwards of 18 North Korean soldiers had already deserted before the unit was committed to combat operations in Bryansk oblast and Kursk oblast.”
ISW reports that Russian officials have not denied the reports as of 15 October. The think tank argues that Russian President Vladimir Putin sent the text of the Russia/North Korea agreement to State Duma on 14 October for ratification.
ISW suggests this provision could be used as a legal justification to deploy North Korean soldiers in combat zones in Russia in response to the Ukrainian incursion in Kursk Oblast.
The think tank reports this move is in line with Putin’s strategy to “pursue alternative force-generation avenues rather than committing to declare partial or general mobilization.”
Putin has relied on cryptomobilization and the creation of new volunteer formations in order to avoid the domestic ramifications that would come from a general mobilization of the society or another partial mobilization.
The report concludes, “Putin seems more willing to absorb North Koreans into the Russian military or resort to other irregular forces generation efforts than to actually call for a larger mobilization to address the combat situations in the theater of operation.”
The United States expressed “concerns” over the possible involvement of North Korean military personnel with Russia’s forces in fighting against Ukraine.
Sean Savett said that if reports of North Korean troops participating in Ukraine were confirmed, this would represent a “significant increase” in the relationship between North Korea’s defense and Russia.
Since the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2020, Russia and North Korea have strengthened their relationship. North Korea sent 1.5 million artillery rounds to Russia, reportedly from their 1970s and 80s stockpiles.
UN confirmed that missile debris from the attacks on Kharkiv in early 2024 was of North Korean origin. Since then, Russia is using at least 20 weapons made in North Korea against Ukraine. This has caused civilian deaths and injuries.
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