The Institute for the Study of War estimates that Moscow fears the onset of bad weather will lead into entrenched positions warfare, giving Ukraine the time to fortify their positions. By committing significant resources in Kursk Oblast to its ongoing offensive, Moscow risks exhausting crucial operational reserves for Donetsk oblast.
The Institute for the Study of War reports that Russia is intensifying its counterattacks in Kursk Oblast. This is likely to be a move to expel Ukrainian troops before bad weather conditions hamper battlefield maneuverability in late 2024 or early 2025.
The Kursk operation launched by Ukraine on 6 August 2024 aimed to destabilize Russian defences by forcing them divert resources from other fronts critical, such as Donetsk Oblast. The operation was designed to spread Russian forces thin in order to disrupt their advance in eastern Ukraine. Despite initial success in occupying portions of Kursk, Russia continued to push ahead in Donetsk Oblast. This is particularly true around the strategic city Pokrovsk.
The Russian forces believe that the window of opportunity for eliminating the Ukrainian incursion is closing.
General Oleksandr Syrskyi, the Ukrainian commander-in-chief, said that Russia had redeployed around 50,000 personnel in the Kursk Oblast region since the incursion began.
ISW estimates that these redeployments likely have weakened Russian operational units in other areas including Kherson, Zaporizhzhia and Kharkiv. The Russian military command reportedly wants to push Ukrainian forces quickly out of Kursk Oblast in order to free up combat strength for priority offensive operations to be conducted in Donetsk Oblast, and to relieve theater-wide operational stress.
Many of the units redeployed are VDV (Airborne Forces) elements, which Russia uses to quickly reinforce priority operations. These units were sent to Kursk instead of Donetsk Oblast to reinforce operations, which could have a negative impact on Russia’s offensive capability elsewhere.
The Russian military relies on operational reserves created before its offensive Summer 2024 to maintain its pace in Donetsk Oblast. ISW predicts the exhaustion these reserves will lead to the culmination in the coming months of Russia’s offensive Summer 2024.
The Russian military command is hoping that by quickly eliminating the Ukrainian presence within the Kursk Oblast it can redeploy its forces to Donetsk Oblast. This will prevent a culmination and allow them to achieve their objectives of capturing Pokrovsk, and eliminating the Ukrainian salients in western Donetsk Oblast.
ISW has noted that Russian forces in Kursk Oblast have not made rapid progress since 10 September, when they began counterattacks.
Matthew Miller, State Department spokesperson, stressed that Ukraine alone is responsible for making decisions in this operation. However, the US policy on weapons restrictions remains unchanged. Ukraine cannot strike deep into Russian territory.
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