This escalation focuses on eastern Ukraine and aims to maintain the pressure on Ukrainian forces throughout fall and early winter.
According to a report released by the Institute for the Study of War on 9 October, Russian forces are increasing their mechanized assaults against Ukraine to make significant tactical gains before the fall weather conditions impede maneuverability.
The report states that the Russian military command probably ordered the high-tempo of attacks in order to take advantage of the dry road and terrain conditions prior to the onset of the muddy fall weather. This offensive is concentrated in eastern Ukraine including areas such as Kharkiv Oblast, Donetsk Oblast’s Pokrovsk and Kharkiv Oblast.
Ruslan Muzychuk, spokesperson for the Ukrainian National Guard, stated on 8th October that Russian forces are increasingly deploying armored vehicles to the battlefield in order to exploit the remaining favorable circumstances. The ISW notes that Russian forces have conducted frequent mechanized attacks in western Donetsk oblast since late July 2024 and at least four battalion sized assaults on eastern Ukraine since 25th July 2024.
Additionally, Russian forces have resumed large-scale mechanized assaults along the Kupiansk-Svatove-Kreminna line since late September 2024. ISW believes that the Russian military command is aiming to consolidate gains made in frontline settlements such as Kurakhove, in western Donetsk Oblast, and Pokrovsk. These settlements will be used as footholds in future offensive operations.
On 9 October, a Russian milblogger stated that the muddy season conditions in Kursk Oblast have already begun. This is affecting vehicle maneuverability. ISW, however, notes that similar restrictions have not been reported in other sectors, including Ukraine.
Russian forces will not cease offensive operations despite the bad weather forecasts for 2024-2025. ISW reports that Russian forces are determined to continue offensive operations despite muddy conditions on the frontline.
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