(Alex Kent/Getty Images) On September 27, 2024, former U.S. president Donald Trump (R), Volodymyr Zelensky (L), and President Volodymyr Zaleensky (L), shake hands at a meeting held in New York City. (Alex Kent/Getty Images)
Ukrainian politicians have expressed uncertainty over the impact of Donald Trump’s victory on Ukraine. They have congratulated the Republican candidate and emphasized the need for cooperation and diplomacy.
Most politicians did not seem surprised by the outcome. It was predicted that the coin toss would be the result ahead of the election on Nov. 5. However, they said Ukraine now has to work to shape the future of its relationship with Washington.
“Trump brings both new risks and opportunities to Ukraine.” Dmytro Kuleba, Ukraine’s former Foreign Minister, told The Kyiv Independent that it is now up to the Ukrainian government’s skill to minimize the former while maximising the latter. He described his reaction as “calm.”
As the results came in over night, it became apparent that Ukraine’s most important Western ally next year will be someone who has criticized providing aid to Ukraine and blamed U.S. leadership and Ukrainian leadership for war in Ukraine rather than Russia’s invasion forces.
His election could be one of the most important events of the war if it means the end of the high level support provided by the U.S.
Trump’s statements about Ukraine are largely rhetorical and lack concrete plans. This leaves Ukrainians uncertain as to how his presidency will affect future relations.
“Everyone asks how (the election results) will affect Ukraine,” Yaroslav Zelezniak, the first deputy chairman of Finance, Tax and Customs Policy Committee and member of the Holos Party in Ukraine’s Parliament, told the Kyiv Independent.
Zhelezniak stated that “from my point of views, the only way to answer this question is to say it will be a different approach from a new administration and we don’t really know what it means – better or worse.”
A strained past
Trump’s remarks on the campaign trail have caused concern among supporters of Ukraine, especially his repeated promises to end Ukraine’s “war within 24 hours.”
He has not shared publicly a plan for achieving this goal, but the Financial Times reported in the past month that it could involve pressing Ukraine to cede territories or give up its NATO ambitions.
“Trump brings both new risks and opportunities to Ukraine.” Former Foreign Minister Dmytro Kulba said that it is now up to the Ukrainian government’s skill to minimize the first and maximize the second.
In recent months, the prospect that Trump would be elected president has led politicians in Kyiv into a more cordial relationship with him and those who are part of his circle. Volodymyr Zelensky, the president of Ukraine, was one of first leaders to publicly congratulate Trump after Trump’s victory had been declared.
Zelensky wrote: “I appreciate President Trump’s commitment to the peace through strength’ approach in global affairs.” “This is the exact principle that can bring a just peace to Ukraine closer. I am confident that we will put this into action together.
Since Trump’s first tenure, the relationship between them has been strained. A phone call in 2019, which led to Trump’s impeachment proceedings, was allegedly a result of Trump pressuring Zelensky by withholding military assistance to investigate political opponents.
In the years that have passed, Trump has repeatedly criticised Ukraine’s President, while Zelensky’s responses remain more measured.
Zelensky was joined by other top politicians including Denys Shmyhal (Prime Minister), Andriy Yurmak (Head of the President’s Office) and Ruslan Stefanchuk as they congratulated Trump on his win.
Challenge, opportunity and unpredictability
Several Ukrainian politicians have noted Trump’s lackluster approach to Ukraine, and told The Kyiv Independent they are not giving up hope that time and diplomatic efforts will change Trump’s attitude.
“For Ukraine, Trump’s victory is both a challenge as well as an opportunity,” said Oleksandr Merezhko. He is a member of Zelensky’s Servant of the People Party and the chair of the Foreign Affairs Committee of the Parliament. “I hope that his presidency will be more of an opportunity than a challenge.” I don’t think that Trump will throw Ukraine under the Bus because it would not be in the interest of the U.S.”
Merezhko said that dealing with Trump would require a lot of diplomatic and political skills.
Mykola Kniazhytskyi is a member of the European Solidarity Party, currently in opposition. He said that he believes Trump harbors “illusions,” about dealing with Russian president Vladimir Putin. He compared Trump’s views on Putin to those Zelensky had before he rose to power. Zelensky stated in 2019 that he was willing to “look Putin in his eye” and discuss an agreement.
“Obviously, many of (Trump)’s) statements made during the election campaign – and not just his, but the Vice President elect (JDVance), and those who support him – could not be perceived in Ukraine positively. Kniazhytskyi stated that he thought they were naive. He asked how Trump’s behaviour could change in the wake of his encounters Putin.
Kniazhytskyi said, “I don’t rule out the possibility of the U.S. assistance to Ukraine not being reduced. This is very important for us.”
Volodymyr Aryev, a member of the European Solidarity Party, said that some members of parliament hoped for Harris to win and were “disappointed.” He said that Ukrainian diplomats should do everything possible to ensure that Trump’s next moves are pro-Ukrainian.
Aryev said, “We can forget (Trump’s), foreign policy announcements that were made before the election.” “Trump is a politician egoist, and he is unpredictable.” The only thing that is predictable is that he’ll do things that benefit him.”
Oleksandr Merezhko, a lawmaker, said: “Dealing Trump will require us to have lots of diplomatic and politic skills.”
Timofy Mylovanov is the president of the Kyiv School of Economics. He was a former advisor to the President’s Office. He said that under Trump, the idealistic format of Ukraine’s relations with the U.S., under President Joe Biden, would be replaced by a pragmatic format.
“I’m optimistic than others,” said he, referring to U.S. elections results. Trump’s victory is not the end of world.
“We need to shape our own reality”
Many Ukrainian politicians, despite their optimism, believe that a Trump presidency would require a significant amount of effort on the domestic front. Others said that the country needs to rely less on its ally while others said that maintaining a good relationship with the Trump administration will require work.
“The American people made its choice. Time will tell how this will affect us. Serhiy Prytula, a media personality and a politician, wrote that it would be different. “We must support the military regardless of which administration is in the White House. We will rely primarily on our strength.”
Kuleba believes that Trump’s victory and the uncertainty about future aid will encourage the cash-strapped Ukraine, to better manage its available resources to fight the war.
Kniazhytskyi also expressed a similar sentiment. He said that Trump’s presidency meant “we need to become more effective in governing our state – internally, in managing the military, diplomacy and external communications.”
He said that since Trump will respond to American wishes, Ukrainians should “make sure the American people are aware of the truth about what’s happening in Ukraine.”
Yaroslav Yurchyshyn said that “there is no panic” among politicians and diplomats. It’s all about the work processes.”
Yurchyshyn stated that Ukraine must provide the U.S. a convincing plan of victory and show why America benefits from continuing to support Ukraine. “But to do this, we must grow up and stop relying on the U.S. by default.”
The Kyiv Independent’s Kateryna Deisova, Natalia Yermak Chris York, Martin Fornusek and Oleg Sukhov contributed reporting.
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