US investigators are attempting to determine how two highly classified intelligence documents leaked online.
The US assessment of Israeli plans for an attack on Iran is contained in the documents that appeared on Telegram, a messaging app, on Friday.
John Kirby, spokesman for the White House National Security Council, said that President Joe Biden is “deeply concerned” by the leak.
Mr Kirby stated that officials have not determined if the documents were leaked or hack due to a hack.
Israel has been threatening to strike Iran hard for three weeks in retaliation of Iran’s massive ballistic missile attack against Israel on 1 October.
Iran claims that this was in response to Israel assassinating Hassan Nasrallah the Hezbollah Leader on 27 September.
Are the documents authentic?
Military analysts said the phrasing in the headings looked credible and was consistent with similar classified files revealed in the past.
The acronym “FGI” is included in the “Top Secret” heading.
The documents appeared to have been distributed to intelligence agencies within the Five Eyes Alliance, which is composed of five Western nations who regularly share intelligence. These are the US, UK Canada, Australia, and New Zealand.
The acronym “TK”, in the documents, refers to “Talent Keyhole”, a word code for satellite-based Signals Intelligence and Imagery Intelligence.
What do they say?
The two documents, taken together, are a classified US analysis of Israel’s plans to strike targets in Iran based on geospatial information gathered and analyzed on 15-16 Oct.
The mention of two Air Launched Ballistic Missile Systems (ABLMs): Golden Horizon and Rocks is prominent.
Rocks is an Israeli-made long-range missile designed to hit targets above and below the ground. Golden Horizon is believed to be a reference to the Blue Sparrow system, which has a range of approximately 2,000km (1240 miles).
This would suggest that the Israeli Air Force plans to launch a similar, but much more extensive version of its ABLM attacks on an Iranian radar near Isfahan this April.
By launching these weapons at long range, far from Iran’s border, it would eliminate the need for Israeli planes to fly over certain countries in the area like Jordan.
The documents also indicate that Israel has not taken any steps to activate its nuclear deterrent.
The US government has never publicly acknowledged that Israel, its close ally, even possesses nuclear arms. This has caused some embarrassment to Washington.
What are they not telling us?
These documents do not mention what targets Israel plans to strike in Iran or when.
The US has not hidden its opposition to targeting Iran’s nuclear facilities or oil installations.
This leaves military bases. Most likely, these are those of Iran’s Revolutionary Guards Corps and Basij militia, as they are seen as the backbones of the Islamic Republic. They project its military reach abroad while suppressing protests at home.
Many had expected Israel to have already carried out its promised retaliation. In April, Iran waited for 12 days to retaliate against Israel after an Israeli airstrike killed several senior IRGC officers in Damascus.
Israel’s current response may be delayed due to US concerns about escalation, with less than one month left before the US presidential election.
Did they leak on purpose?
Someone who wanted to derail Israel’s plans could say yes.
Iran has a sophisticated and large cyber-warfare capability, so the possibility of an hostile hack is being investigated.
These documents, if they are genuine, as is highly likely, show how Washington, despite the close relationship between the US, and Israel in terms of defence, still spies on Israel to ensure that it gets the full picture.
They show that the Israeli Air Force has well-developed plans to carry out a long-range retaliation on Iran and that mitigation measures are being taken against an anticipated Iranian response.
If and when Israel carries out these plans, the Middle East will experience extreme tension once again.