It echoes past defeats. From sunken flagships to expired rations, it transforms Putin’s “three day” campaign into a long-term struggle against not only Ukraine, but also Russia’s systemic rot.
The invasion of Ukraine has thrown Russia’s economy into “Dutch Disease,” an economic paradox in which a country’s revenue from a particular sector — in this case, oil — becomes disproportionately large, causing damage to other industries. The war-related global rise in oil prices led to a significant rise in the ruble value in 2022.
This ruble strengthening, while appearing positive, actually slowed other economic sectors down by making Russian exports less competitive on global markets and more expensive.
Russia’s massive cash injections from its reserves have been widely acknowledged as a way of boosting the economy. The main investments are now directed to military production and war-related expenses.
In a remarkable transformation, unimaginable in democratic countries today, Russia now allocates almost half of its budget to expenditures relating to the invasion.
The inflow of money for military purposes could create a paradox that is unique to Russia. This phenomenon, that we could call the “Russian Disease,” is the result of the ruling elite’s misplaced belief in their ability win any war because of their resource advantage.
Paradoxically, this misguided confidence often leads to failures, even in smaller conflicts at local level, due to corruption or inefficiency fueled by it.
Selective memory: Existential conflicts vs. regime-driven conflict
This paradox is a result of the Russian ruling regimes’ belief in the invincibility of their country and the idea that investing resources will guarantee victory. This confidence is bolstered by a narrative of Russia’s past military prowess.
The Russian elite believes in their superiority due to a few notable military experiences, such as the Napoleonic Wars, World War II and conflicts with minor military powers. This selective memory, however, ignores many instances of military failure.
In smaller local conflicts, the Russian elite tends to view these conflicts as opportunities for personal gains. This mentality leads to inefficiency and corruption. It also leads to overconfidence and inefficiency.
Russia tends not to emphasize the fact that the major victories in Russian History, such as the Napoleonic Wars and World War II were won through the mobilization of all national resources and the significant efforts of allies. These wars were deemed defensive and existential to the nation’s existence.
Other wars, on the other hand, were either non-existent or existed only for the leaders of regimes. Elites viewed these conflicts primarily as opportunities to advance in their careers and make money, ignoring the final outcome. These conflicts were lost despite Russia’s initial resource advantage. Notable examples include:
* Crimean War (1855-56)
* Russo-Japanese War (1904-05)
* World War I (1914-1918).
* Soviet-Afghan War (1979-1989)
These campaigns started with high levels of confidence, but ended with significant complications for the ruling party.
Endogenous corruption: the rot in Russia’s military
The ongoing full-scale invasion in Ukraine is strikingly similar to these past conflicts. After the Soviet-Afghan War, and the dissolution the Soviet Union, Russia fought local conflicts in Chechnya and Georgia, and Syria. The opponents’ military capability was negligible in comparison to Russia’s.
For the first time in decades Russia, expecting a quick “three-day campaign” in Ukraine, has encountered a determined enemy that offers unprecedented resistance.
In all of these cases, corruption has been the dominant factor in Russia’s losses. The Russian military‘s exclusive report structure to the head-of-state, with little or zero external oversight, allows widespread corruption. The army and navy enjoy an untouchable position, with budgets that are almost uncontrolled. During peacetime, the internal affairs of the military are rarely scrutinized by outsiders. Only when war breaks out can the extent of corruption be seen, as the military appears to be deteriorating from the inside.
Former Russian Defence Minister Andrei Kozyrev said that a fifth of budget allocated for military upgrades and improvements has been embezzled. Some of the scandals that have highlighted the extent of corruption in the past include:
* The Peter the Great Warship Scam (2010)
The Oboronservis Scandal (2012)
Both cases involved thefts of substantial funds that had a dramatic impact on Russia’s military capability.
The Russian naval forces are particularly affected by corruption and its devastating effects on their operational capability.
Admiral Kuznetsov, Russia’s sole aircraft carrier and flagship ship of the Russian Navy, has been the focal point of several embezzlement cases. The funds intended for its repair have been stolen multiple times, resulting in repeated fires and engine problems. The vessel is still docked and unable to be finished.
In March 2022, two independent contractors and a Russian naval official were arrested on charges of corruption. They had stolen nearly 700 million rubles (9.6 million dollars) meant for missile upgrades, and another billion rupees ($13.7million) for the same purpose on another occasion.
Two Ukrainian Neptune missiles sank Moskva, the Russian Black Sea Fleet‘s flagship, just weeks after these upgrades were not completed.
Invasion of Ukraine reveals the failures in logistics
The Russian military’s logistical deficiencies were revealed by the full-scale invasion in Ukraine in 2022. These included substandard equipment, expired rations and outdated uniforms. Operation commanders of all levels were implicated both in large-scale corruption and petty fraud, including selling fuel and other supplies for personal gain.
The Russian military has been corrupt for a long time. However, since the invasion these issues have become more prominent.
The poor quality of supplies provided to Russian soldiers is a particularly egregious issue. According to reports, troops received unusable and decommissioned body armor due to corruption during the procurement process. Some soldiers had to buy their own basic supplies including boots, medical kit, and food. These logistical gaps can be attributed largely to corruption and misappropriation of funds.
The Russian military is rife with corruption
Corruption in the Russian military isn’t a new issue. Even in the early days following the collapse of the Soviet Union, corruption was deeply ingrained in the military system. Since decades, the practice of paying a fee to avoid conscription has been a major source of income for the Russian military. Reports suggest that a fee of $5,000 is needed to avoid deployment on the Ukrainian front. This practice places the sickest and poorest individuals on the frontlines.
Independent media‘s attempts to expose these issues were actively suppressed. Dmitry Kholodov’s case, a journalist who investigated mafia links to the military, is a chilling example. Kholodov received a briefcase containing documents purportedly revealing corruption. When he opened it, the briefcase exploded and revealed that it was a bomb, not documents.
Vladimir Putin, the president of the Russian Federation, has acknowledged corruption’s severity and its impact on the funding of wars. In response, he named a new chief of the Accounts Chamber and stated, “Russia has revenue, but no money.” There is no reserve or spare money. Putin continued, “You’ll find corrupt people and you’ll get the money from these people.”
This directive could lead to a scenario in which businessmen and entrepreneurs are accused of corruption and forced to pay a fine to avoid this designation. This situation highlights the pervasiveness of corruption, even at the highest levels of government.
The Russian defense industry has been grappling with corruption for many years. It affects everything, from weapons procurement to military readiness. In 2012, Anatoly Serdyukov – who had tried to combat corruption – was dismissed for his involvement in a scandal involving officials of the Defence Ministry.
This incident revealed the misappropriation funds intended to improve the living conditions of soldiers, resulting in substandard accommodation, poor equipment, inadequate infrastructure, and other problems. The problems persist. According to reports, up to 40% of Defence Ministry budget could be lost due to corruption.
Arms procurement is plagued by a particularly pernicious type of corruption. The misappropriation by Russian arms manufacturers of funds meant for research, development and quality control has made it difficult to produce modern, reliable weaponry.
The much-vaunted Su-57 fighter jet has been plagued by significant delays and technical failures. Only a few prototypes were completed after more than 20 years. Military experts and insiders attribute these shortcomings to corruption and mismanagement in the defense sector. The ongoing conflict in Ukraine has exposed these shortcomings, with Russian troops often relying upon outdated or malfunctioning gear.
Nepotism, bribery and command structure failures
The 2008 Russo-Georgian War showed how corruption and inefficiency within the Russian military hampered its operational capabilities. The lack of modernization and technology in the Russian military was a critical issue, as it forced soldiers to rely upon outdated vehicles, weapons and communication systems. This problem was largely caused by systemic corruption in the military’s purchasing processes, where officials or contractors often diverted funds meant for equipment upgrades. Investigations revealed that military leaders accepted bribes in order to secure contracts with substandard or outdated technology.
The poor planning and logistics of the military during the Russo–Georgian War revealed deep-seated problems within the command structure. These issues were exacerbated by bribery and nepotism. The appointment of commanders was often based on personal connections, rather than merit. This led to ineffective leadership on the battlefield. This caused confusion and delays during critical moments of the war. Georgia mounted a stronger resistance than the Russian forces expected.
The “Russian Disease” of corruption has roots that go back centuries.
During the Crimean War, (1853-1856), the Russian military’s performance was severely affected by corruption. High-ranking officials and officers were notorious for embezzling military supplies and money. These corrupt practices led to soldiers being ill-equipped, inadequately clothed and under-supplied, especially during the harsh winter months. Inefficiency and greed among military bureaucrats resulted in the diversion of resources, such as weapons and food, to personal gain. The Russian troops were therefore vulnerable and unprepared when faced with the better-equipped British and French forces, as well as the Ottomans.
The Russian military also suffered from poor leadership, and an outdated, rigid command structure. Many officers bought their commissions, rather than earning them by merit, and were more concerned with maintaining their luxurious lifestyles than addressing the logistical problems of the war.
Mismanagement led to major defeats such as the Battles of Balaclava, and the Siege at Sevastopol. The Russian war effort was severely weakened by the exposure of soldiers to disease, hunger, and harsh conditions.
The Crimean War exposed the systemic problems plaguing Russia’s military. It exposed an outdated aristocratic society that valued personal connections above competence. The consequences of corruption and inefficiency in the Russian military and bureaucracy were so severe, they sparked significant reforms after the war.
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