A recent survey conducted by independent pollsters ExtremeScan and Chronicles revealed that almost half of Russian citizens (49%) support withdrawing troops from Ukraine and negotiating for peace, even if it means not achieving the Kremlin’s military objectives. This marks a significant shift from past polls, which showed overwhelming support for the war in Ukraine. In February 2023, a survey by the Levada Center found that 77% of Russians supported the full-scale war.
The joint survey by ExtremeScan and Chronicles, conducted in September 2024, also found that a majority of Russians (53%) believe it is more important to remove Ukrainian troops from Russian territory than to seize more ground in eastern Ukraine. Only 15% of respondents said Russia should occupy more territory in Ukraine.
The poll also asked about the extent to which Russians were willing to support a full-scale invasion. The results showed that 32% would participate in the war if ordered by the Russian Defense Ministry, while 29% said they were not prepared to fight. Another 29% said they would support a new wave of Russian mobilization.
The survey was based on responses from 800 individuals over the age of 18 and was conducted to coincide with the two-year anniversary of Russia’s mobilization campaign. Both Chronicles and ExtremeScan were founded in 2022 by Russian antiwar activists, with the goal of challenging the Kremlin’s claims of widespread support for the war through innovative polling methods.
According to Alexei Minyaylo, founder of Chronicles, it is difficult to accurately gauge public opinion in a dictatorship during a war, as people tend to identify with the majority and may lie out of fear. This is why the research projects of Chronicles and ExtremeScan have shown significantly less support for the war in Ukraine compared to other major independent polling centers.
In conclusion, the joint survey by ExtremeScan and Chronicles has revealed a significant shift in public opinion among Russians, with nearly half of the population now supporting the withdrawal of troops from Ukraine and peace negotiations. This survey serves as a reminder that public opinion can change over time, and that innovative polling methods can provide a more accurate representation of the people’s views.
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