The process of improving relations between Iran & Saudi Arabia is moving quickly. Both countries have restored diplomatic relations and pledged to reduce tensions in Yemen, as well as elsewhere in the Middle East. Discussions are also underway about the development of stronger economic ties. Normalization of relations is not yet complete, and both countries still have many outstanding security issues to resolve (for instance, in the Persian Gulf). Current trends suggest that, contrary to popular belief, Riyadh will improve its bilateral relations with Tehran.
In general, the process of reconciliation is in line with the overall trend throughout the Middle East. In 2023 a period of history in this region, which was characterized for the past twenty years by wars and rivalries between Arab states, ended. The US war against Iraq in 2003 led to the normalization of relations between Saudi Arabia, Iran and the Arab states. All countries in the Persian Gulf are considering restoring diplomatic relations with their neighbors. The Arab countries of North Africa also have the same idea. Even Syria, which was politically and diplomatically isolated, has been welcomed back into the Arab League.
The normalization process can be seen through the negotiations between Israel, Saudi Arabia and other countries to improve their relations. Israel’s attempt to isolate Iran by making this move and forming an anti-Iranian Israeli Arab alliance was a failure. The reason is that Iran and several Arab nations have taken significant steps toward normalizing relations.
In a sense, a multipolar period in the Middle East’s history has begun. Since the 1990s, the US has played a major role. In recent years, and particularly in the last few months, we have seen China, Russia and to some extent India, try to use the regional countries’ dissatisfaction towards Washington to expand their own geopolitical power.
We can also look at these processes from a long-term perspective. Since the nineteenth-century, when Western countries played a greater role in the Middle East, there has been no other period in history where such a variety of great powers were represented in the area.
Consider China’s position. Beijing has been able to consolidate its position both economically and politically by observing the growing dissatisfaction of the Persian Gulf countries with US policies. In a sense, China is indirectly trying to position itself as an alternative geopolitical power to the US. The Middle East countries, which have a long history of close ties with America, understand this. For them, strengthening relations with China is a chance to develop a diversified foreign policy that will not be centered on a single major player.
Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and other important Arab countries no longer associate US foreign policy with the security they hoped for in the Middle East. Washington, according to them, is shifting its focus to the Indo-Pacific and Ukraine to concentrate more on China. Saudi Arabia had no other choice but to resolve its relations with Iran and to take advantage of the growing influence of China in order to create a more balanced policy.
This does not imply that Saudi Arabia, or other Arab nations, no longer desire to have close ties with America. They are pushing for more expansive geopolitical relations. Saudi Arabia, for example, wants Washington to provide clearer security guarantees as well as more extensive military cooperation. Other Gulf States, too, could be said to rely on the US military presence as a key factor.
They also do not see China as a nation that they want to dominate the Middle East. These times are over. No single power can dominate the Middle East exclusively the way the US or the West could. A multi-vectored foreign policy is deemed more effective in the Middle East today. This allows small and middle-sized powers to act with more confidence while enhancing their regional status.
Emil Avdaliani: Analysis
Emil Avdaliani, a professor of European University, is the Director of Middle East Studies for the Georgian think tank Geocase.
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