According to reports, thousands of North Korean soldiers are training in Russia in preparation for a possible deployment to Ukraine. The Estonian Intelligence Chief also reports that Ukrainian strikes against ammunition depots have exacerbated Russia’s munitions crises, highlighting Ukraine’s expanding long-range capability.
Military Personnel
UK intelligence: Russian forces have set the conditions for an attack against Pokrovsk. While Pokrovsk is the main effort, renewed Russian activity has been observed in Zaporizhzhia.
Russian troops gain foothold in Toretsk by gaining control of two streets. While heavy fighting continues in Toretsk the Russian occupation forces are making significant gains. Military analysts warn that control of Toretsk could facilitate further advancements into eastern Ukraine.
Fuel shortages for Russian troops in occupied Crimea are a result of a Ukrainian strike on the Feodosia Oil Terminal. The attack disrupted oil transshipment on the peninsula and led Russian forces to quickly set up mobile refueling station to evade any further strikes.
The relentless Russian bombardments are pushing Kyiv forces to the east of Ukraine. Russian occupiers continue to capture more Ukrainian towns in Donetsk Oblast including Vuhledar.
Frontline report: Toretsk is a kill zone after Ukraine launches counterattacks on high-rises. The ongoing battles at Toretsk have highlighted the importance of FPV drones (First Person View). Ukrainian operators are using these agile drones to strike Russian soldiers at unprecedented precision even as they try to hide inside buildings.
ISW: Russia intensifies its efforts in Kursk to drive out Ukrainian forces before winter. The Institute for the Study of War believes that Moscow is concerned about the possibility of a positional war if the weather turns bad. This would give Ukraine time to fortify their positions. By committing significant resources in Kursk Oblast to its ongoing offensive, Moscow risks exhausting crucial operational reserves for Donetsk oblast.
Ukraine strikes key oil storage depot in occupied Luhansk Oblast, disrupting Russian military logistics. This is the fifth strike on the facility recorded since 2022, highlighting its strategic importance.
The approximate loss of military equipment and weapons of the Russian Armed Forces since the beginning of the invasion until the present is 12 OCT 2024.
* Personnel: 667630 (+1290)
* Tanks: 8962 (+9)
* APV: 17827 (+27)
* Artillery systems : 19381 (+59).
* MLRS: 1230 (+1)
* Anti-aircraft systems: 976
* Aircraft: 369
* Helicopters: 329
* UAV: 16947 (+110)
* Cruise missiles : 2619
* Warships/boats: 28
* Submarines: 1
* Vehicles and fuel tank: 26513 (+115).
Intelligence and technology
Belgium has increased its security measures in response to possible sabotage or espionage. Recent incidents, such as cyberattacks and sabotage efforts linked to pro-Russian agents, highlight the complexity of security challenges that Europe faces.
Russian forces are enhancing reconnaissance UAVs by using electronic warfare against antiaircraft drones. Ukrainian forces are already working to countermeasures despite the fact that the extent of the technology’s deployment is still unclear. This highlights the ongoing technological cat and mouse race in the skies above Ukraine.
Bloomberg: India emerges amid sanctions as the second-largest provider of critical tech to Russia. India has become an important node in Russia’s efforts to bypass Western technology sanctions by exporting sensitive technologies, including microchips and circuits.
Estonian Intelligence chief claims that Ukrainian strikes on ammunition depots worsen Russia’s munitions shortage. According to Estonian intelligence, Russia’s mounting munitions crisis worsened when Ukrainian forces launched precision strikes on key depots. Six North Korean officers stationed alongside Russian troops were killed. The attacks show Russia’s increasing dependence on North Korean supplies and Ukraine’s expanding capabilities.
Sweden has sent high-speed combat vessels to Ukraine’s “Viking” maritime intelligence center. The newly-unveiled “Viking” maritime center for Ukraine’s military Intelligence has been equipped with Stridsbat90 boats, improving operational capabilities for sea missions and fire support.
International
Ukraine continues to seek approval for strikes on Russian territory. Andriy Yeermak, the head of Ukraine’s Presidential Office confirmed that ongoing efforts are being made to secure Western approval for strikes against Russian military infrastructure.
FM Syhiba, and his EU counterpart, discuss progress on the EUR35bn loan to Russia. This financial assistance package agreed by the EU Council is part of a larger G7 loan initiative.
WSJ : Trump is favored by key US states to resolve the Russo-Ukrainian War. The outcome of the election could be decided by voters in the “swing states”, which could reshape the US’s role on the world stage for many years to come.
WP: Thousands of North Korean soldiers train in Russia to be deployed in Ukraine. Ukrainian officials claim that North Korean military engineers have already been present in occupied territory, overseeing the use Pyongyang’s weapons. Some of these personnel were reportedly killed in action, highlighting the direct involvement of North Korean troops.
House Speaker Johnson expressed his fatigue about the war in Ukraine. Mike Johnson suggested the outcome of the Ukraine-Russia conflict could be determined by the US presidential election in 2024. Johnson suggested that former president Trump could end the Ukraine-Russia conflict if reelected. This was in contrast to his view that the war would continue under a Harris administration.
Humanitarian and Social Impact
Russian strikes injure civilians in Zaporizhzhia. Zaporizhzhia Oblast suffered 425 attacks over a 24-hour period. The city of Zaporizhzhia was hit by three precision strikes, while the surrounding towns were bombarded with air raids, artillery, and rocket attacks. One of the injured was an 11-year-old child who received hospital treatment before returning to her home.
Political and legal developments
Zelenskyy will present the “Victory Plan” in the coming days. The plan should include political, diplomatic, and military measures to secure Ukraine’s position, and push Russia towards a forced peace.
The undeclared $6 million wealth of mother and son top officials in Ukraine’s anti-corruption fight has brought their careers to an end. The State Bureau of Investigation exposed the son, who was the head of Khmelnytskyi’s Medical and Social Expertise Center and the mother, who was the head of Khmelnytskyi’s Pension Fund Office, for a scheme of fraudulent disability certificates for military service evasion and illegally gaining $6 million.
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