In the fourth week since Russia invaded Ukraine, Russian advances were halted or pushed in many areas. Ukrainian forces held out in several cities, and launched effective counter-attacks.
Here are the latest developments from Day 28 of the invasion.
* Russian forces continue to occupy the southern city of Mariupol where food, water, and medicine are now scarce.
* Ukrainian forces have reportedly retaken Makariv, west of Kyiv.
* Ukrainian forces still control Kharkiv to the east
* Russian naval forces are still stationed off the coast of Odesa, in the Black Sea.
The Russians have made little progress in recent days
The Institute for the Study of War warns that if the initial campaign fails to capture major cities such as Kyiv, Kharkiv, and Odesa, it could lead to a “very bloody and violent” stalemate lasting for weeks or even months.
The UK Ministry of Defense said this week that the Russian forces were forced to change their strategy due to the ferocity of Ukrainian resistance.
They wrote: “They are now pursuing an ‘attrition strategy’ that could result in more civilian casualties and greater destruction in cities in the days to come.”
The Wall Street Journal’s source, an American official of high rank, said that after Russia failed to win a quick victory in Ukraine, they changed their strategy and moved to Plan B.
In the new strategy, Russia aims to protect its territorial gains and increase pressure on Ukraine’s authorities, including through bombing of cities, in order to pursue their own interest.
The Fight for Kyiv
The Russians have attempted to encircle the capital and cut it off, but many areas around Kyiv, especially in south Ukraine, remain under Ukrainian control.
The Russian artillery is still far from the city centre, but the shelling continues and causes casualties and destruction of homes.
Ukrainian forces have retaken Makariv, a small town west of Kyiv.
The Ukrainian military said this week that the state flag of Ukraine had been raised over the town Makariv as the Russians retreated.
Makariv was severely damaged by Russian air strikes.
The Russian air force continues to launch rocket attacks on Kyiv, Chernigov and Kharkiv.
The Russian advance west of Kyiv was stopped by Ukrainian forces in the suburbs Bucha and Irpin. They were about 25km away from the city centre.
BBC reports that Justin Bronk, a UK defense and security expert from the Royal United Services Institute, says that these new Ukrainian counterattacks to the West of Kyiv may hamper Moscow’s plans for capturing the capital.
Russian Progress in the South Slows Down
Russian forces made rapid gains initially in the south. Their main objective was to create a land corridor connecting Crimea, annexed by Russia in 2014, with areas held by Russian-backed rebels in Donetsk or Luhansk.
The port city of Mariupol is the main target of this objective. It has been surrounded by Russian forces since March began. Ukrainian officials claim that around 100,000 civilians are still trapped in the city.
The Ukrainian government rejected the Russian demand that Mariupol be surrendered on Monday morning. The Russian military gave Ukraine until 05:00 Moscow Time to announce the surrender of the city, promising in return that it would safeguard two humanitarian exit corridors for civilians.
Previous attempts to create safe exits for civilians from the city through ceasefires failed, and those fleeing came under fire.
Analysts at ISW suggested that Russian forces are concentrating their efforts in the south on a drive towards Kryvyi Rih. This could be to isolate and take Zaporizhiya from the west.
“To the west, Russia will likely continue to push towards Odesa in order to cut off Ukraine’s Black Sea access. In recent days, Russian naval forces have fired on Odesa from the coast. However, military experts believe that capturing Odesa with troops landed from the sea will be difficult.
BBC reports that “Russian advance on Mykolaiv has slowed and a counterattack by Ukrainian troops pushed Russian forces from nearby Voznesensk back.”
Russian Advances in East
Fighting continues in Donetsk, Luhansk and other regions where separatists backed by Russia held significant territory prior to the Russian invasion.
In the north-east of the country, Russian troops almost surrounded Sumy. However, Ukrainian forces prevented any attempts to cut off the city from the south.
Analysts say that Russian forces in Kharkiv are short of ammunition.
After a month-long war that has been devastating, the Ukrainian forces still control all the major cities. The failure of Russia to achieve a quick win has led to an even more grim phase of the conflict, whose end is still not visible.
Zelensky, on the one-month anniversary, urged the world to protest Russian War, making a passionate plea to citizens worldwide, to pour into streets and squares to protest the bloody month-old Russian invasion.
“The world has to stop the war,” said he. “Come in the name peace from your offices, homes, schools and universities. Come with Ukrainian symbols to show your support for Ukraine, freedom, and life.
By Ana Dumbadze
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