There are many indications that the pro-Russian Georgian Dream Party’s recent victory was marked by fraud. Georgia’s democracy may collapse if the West does not support democratic opposition parties to challenge these results.
Bidzina Ivanishvili, the founder of the ruling Georgian Dream Party, and Georgian Prime minister Irakli Kobakhidze react at a gathering held at the party headquarters on October 26, 2024, after exit polls are announced for the 2024 parliamentary election in Tbilisi. (Giorgi Ajevanidze / AFP through Getty Images).
Georgian Dream, led by the Russian-backed Bidzina Ilvanishvili, defeated Mikheil Sakaashvili, the then-president of Georgia, in the 2012 elections. Although widely hailed as a democratic victory at the time, astute analysts warned against celebrating.
Kakha Bendukidze was one of these observers. A businessman and philanthropist, he wryly noted that the country had “made a big step forward in terms democracy” with Ivanishvili’s victory.
When friends who voted for Georgian Dream in 2012 told me they would vote it out of power if the party failed to deliver on its promises, I warned them this would be much harder than they thought.
Unfortunately, my prediction proved accurate, as Georgia’s parliamentary elections on Oct. 26 showed. According to independent polling groups like Edison Research who conducted both exit polls and pre-election polls, Georgian Dream has been soundly defeated by four opposition parties. As we celebrated our victory, CEC announced results that gave Ivanishvili’s party an advantage that was greater than the exit poll numbers by about 15%.
After the election, confusion and fatigue quickly followed. We had received many reports of polling issues, legal violations and other issues throughout the day. However, the extent of the government’s electoral fraud was only revealed after the official results.
In the run-up to the elections, the government introduced an electronic voting system. Many Georgians believed that the government would only make such a change if it served their own interests. However, some NGOs and political parties as well as international organizations believed the new system offered stronger safeguards for fair and free elections.
The skeptics had it right. Georgia’s opposition is still investigating specifics about the government’s election fraud. However, it is clear there hasn’t been such massive interference in elections since the first post-Soviet elections 33 years ago. Georgian Dream lost in Tbilisi, and other major cities. In rural areas, the level of manipulation is staggering. Independent election-observer groups are calling for the annulment of results in more than 246 precincts, which cover over 400,000 voters. They cite grave violations. Some NGOs have called for a total annulment of results and new election because the new system failed to ensure ballot secrecy.
The United States and European Union have both called for an investigation of the election. No Western leader, except for the Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, has recognized the results as valid.
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