**Russia’s Plan to Exploit Trump’s Ukraine Deal**
Russian President Vladimir Putin wants to use any effort by US President-elect Donald Trump to force Ukraine to give up to benefit Russia. Here’s how this might happen and what EU countries can do to stop it.
**Putin’s Ideal Scenario**
If Trump agrees to a deal that recognizes Russia’s “legitimate interests”, Putin would get what he wants. This means:
* Russia gets control of about one-fifth of Ukraine’s territory, including Crimea
* Western economic sanctions are eased partially
* Ukraine can’t join NATO
* Ukraine faces limits on certain weapons
**The Consequences**
If Trump forces these conditions on Ukraine, it would be a disaster. Without US support, Ukraine’s military struggle would become unsustainable. European aid alone is not enough.
**What EU Countries Can Do**
To prevent this worst-case scenario, EU countries should:
1. **Increase defense spending**: Raise spending to 3% of GDP to prepare for a potential Russian attack or defend Europe without US support.
2. **Provide Ukraine with weapons**: Give Ukraine all available European weapons and purchase them from global sources if necessary.
3. **Deploy EU troops**: Send EU troops to the contact line between Ukrainian and Russian forces once any deal is reached to freeze the Russian assault.
4. **Confiscate frozen Russian assets**: Auction these assets and use the proceeds to fund critical defense measures, including support for Ukraine.
5. **Offer Trump a compromise**: If Trump refrains from throwing Ukraine overboard, the EU could allocate funds to purchase American weapons for Ukraine and European NATO states.
These measures are technically and legally feasible. Their success depends on Europe’s political will to prevent Russia’s strategic victory.