Western governments, analysts and media personalities have struggled for the past decade to understand Russia’s actions, especially since the invasion has become a quagmire from which the Kremlin seems unable to escape. Since 2022, a third of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet was incapacitated. Over 3,000 tanks were lost and casualties reached levels not seen since World War II. There has not been a major anti-war uprising like the ones seen during the Soviet/Afghan War. Nor has there been a significant pushback against Russia’s ruling elite. The only notable exception was mutiny of the Wagner mercenary unit for one day. Because of this, the war continues, as the Russian government and society operate under different expectations.Vladimir Putin, now poised to have ruled Russia for three decades after his recent election victory, was initially seen as a reformer compared to former Russian President Boris Yeltsin. He has instead exacerbated the rhetoric on Russian imperial immaturity, especially in relation to Ukraine. Many in the West were puzzled by Putin’s rash decision to launch a full-scale war against Ukraine in 2022 after consolidating control of Crimea and a large part of Ukraine’s Donbas in 2014. But rationalizing Putin’s actions only serves to strengthen his hand.
The attempt to rationalize Putin’s behavior has played into Putin’s hands.
Putin, a career KGB officer, served in East Germany and witnessed the fall the Berlin Wall, as well as the Soviet Union. He views these events, which he considers tragedies, that have diminished Russian power. His career as a senior intelligence officer taught Putin to escalate when he saw signs of weakness. Putin has escalated when he perceives weakness, from the West’s limited reaction to the chemical attacks in Syria to Ukraine’s lack of aid before 2022. He has also shown to deescalate when faced with strength, as he did after the U.S. responded to the Battle of Khasham or after Turkey shot down a Russian Sukhoi Su-24 plane. Putin is a man of strength and, for now, it is important to call his bluffs, otherwise further escalation will be likely. Russia’s military capabilities and force projection have been severely impacted by the full-scale invasion in Ukraine. It would take Russia 10 years to rebuild its military to the strength it had before 2022. Any other modern military would withdraw or freeze a conflict if they suffered such losses. Since the fall of the Soviet Union the Russian defense industry has suffered from embezzlement and fraud, which is why heavy equipment has been lost. The Su-57 and T-14 Armata, which were supposed to rival America‘s top equipment, have not made it to Ukraine because of costs and major flaws that the Kremlin has refused to fix. Moscow risks depleting its Soviet stockpile despite inheriting it. The Russian President Vladimir Putin (R), talks to Russian military Officer Artem Zhoga during an award ceremony held in Moscow, Russia on Dec. 8,2023. (Contributor/Getty images) Estimates range from 500,000 to 700,000 casualties, with an increase in killed and wounded during the late spring as Russia intensified its offensive actions in Kharkiv and Donetsk. The number of casualties is estimated to be between 500,000 and 700,000. This includes a spike in deaths and injuries in late spring, when Russia intensified its offensive in Kharkiv, Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia. Putin has established a strict hierarchy which places his intelligence apparatus, FSB, over the military in order to crack down on unmotivated officers. In World Wars I and II, Russia was willing to accept millions of casualties in order to achieve its objectives. This is not an exception for Ukraine. The Kremlin, lacking Non-Commissioned officers (NCOs), maintains a system in which lower enlisted personnel always obey orders, regardless of how illegal or inept those orders may be. This includes the continuous human waves that Russia uses in Ukraine. The West shouldn’t expect any opposition to the war or a coup attempt. The West should instead continue to provide substantial military aid to Ukraine, and train Kyiv’s newly mobilized forces, as the best method to apply pressure to Russia’s ruling class is to destroy their pride – their military. This policy was exacerbated by the decimation of U.S. forces during the Battle of Khasham, which resulted in the Wagner Group being decimated. Ukraine has shown that Russia’s “redlines” regarding the potential use of nuclear weapons are not worth the paper on which they are written. Ukraine liberated Kherson, which Russia claims, forced the Black Sea Fleet out, and launched incursions in Kursk, yet Russia didn’t respond with nuclear weapons. Western politicians and analysts should remember that Putin and Russia always respond to fear and escalate when they see weakness. The only way to keep peace is to be prepared for any scenario including war.
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