**Russian Losses in Ukraine Fuel Demographic Timebomb**
Russia’s war with Ukraine is taking a devastating toll on the country, not just militarily but also demographically. Experts warn that Russia’s population could be reduced by half by the end of the century.
The General Staff of Ukraine’s Armed Forces reported that Russian losses surpassed 800,000 in January. This number includes dead, wounded, missing, and captured soldiers. In 2024 alone, over 427,000 Russian forces were lost, with their deadliest day occurring on December 19 when they suffered 2,200 casualties.
These losses are compounded by Russia’s pre-existing demographic issues. The country has a low level of human capital, with life expectancy for young men being on par with that in some African countries. Excessive alcohol consumption and high rates of murder, suicide, car crashes, and other fatal accidents contribute to these statistics.
**Declining Birth Rates**
Russia also faces a declining birth rate, which started to fall after 2015. The total fertility rate (TFR), or the average number of children per woman, has dropped from 2.1 in 1988 to around 1.4 by 2022. This is below the replacement rate of 2.1 needed to sustain the population.
Russian President Vladimir Putin has encouraged women to have more children and promised financial incentives for large families. However, these efforts have had little impact on the country’s demographic crisis.
**Consequences for Russia**
Experts warn that Russia’s demographic crisis will make it harder for the country to be a “viable” nation in the future. With a smaller population, Russia may struggle to innovate and contribute to global progress in areas like science, technology, and economy.
The “Russian paradox” refers to the fact that despite having relatively high levels of education, Russia remains a backwater in terms of innovation and economic growth.
**War with Ukraine**
While the demographic crisis is dire for Russia, it’s unlikely to affect their war efforts soon enough to stop their invasion of Ukraine. Russian leaders seem willing to sacrifice everything for the front.
Ukraine itself faces its own demographic crisis, with over 10 million people leaving since Russia first invaded in 2014. The country’s population has fallen to an estimated 37 million by January 2024.
**A Race to the Bottom**
Experts warn that Ukraine and Russia are locked in a “race to the bottom,” with both sides suffering from declining populations, low birth rates, and economic struggles.