The article discusses the economic challenges facing Russia, particularly with regards to its war efforts. It highlights several key points:
1. **Inflation and shortages**: The Russian economy is experiencing rising inflation and shortages of essential goods, including food.
2. **Dependence on domestic financing**: Russia’s reliance on domestic bonds for budget financing has led to skyrocketing interest rates, making debt service a significant burden.
3. **Liquid reserves dwindling**: The National Wealth Fund, which serves as the country’s last liquid reserve, is expected to run out by fall 2025, leaving limited options for financing future budget deficits.
4. **Impact of Western sanctions**: Sanctions imposed by the West have significantly impacted Russia’s economy, including a sharp decline in exports and a weakening ruble.
5. **Manufacturing sector struggling**: Tighter technology sanctions have severely affected Russian manufacturing, with only seven out of 108 planned airliners completed since 2022.
The article concludes that Russia’s economic situation is precarious, with inflation likely to continue rising in 2025. Major bankruptcies are expected, and the government may struggle to provide bailouts. The country’s budget financing options will become increasingly constrained, ultimately limiting Putin‘s ability to wage war.