Unnoticed was the formation of a group of informal countries led by China and Brazil called “Friends of Peace“. This group is promoting their vision of peace in Ukraine. China, Brazil Egypt, Turkey, Kazakhstan Kenya, Indonesia South Africa, Saudi Arabia Zambia, Mexico Algeria Bolivia and Colombia are all part of the group. Also, Hungary, Switzerland and France were invited as observers.
Since February 2024, China has consistently promoted its “peace” formula, in contrast to that of the U.S. which sought to include countries from the “Global South” at the “Peace Summit”, in Switzerland.
Now it is clear that there are two distinct coalitions. The U.S., and its partners, provide aid to Ukraine (the “Ramstein group” informal) and China and partners support Russia (the “Friends of Peace group” informal). The next step is for these two groups to agree on a “peace formula” that will be implemented through signed or announced documents and concrete actions by Russia, Ukraine and other countries on the frontline.
If “Ramstein”, “Friends of Peace”, and “Ramstein” can agree how this Russian-Ukrainian conflict should end, then each side must ensure that their “sponsored” warring parties consent.
In this case, it will be the “Friends of Peace’s” task to explain to Putin why he must accept the “peace formula” as failing to do would leave him without the oil revenues, microchips and the benefits of parallel imports currently provided by the “Friends of Peace”. This would lead to his downfall and a crisis at home. Colombia, for instance, could cut off its primary export product to strengthen this argument (how else would we explain Colombia’s participation in this group? ).
While “Ramstein”, will focus on convincing Ukraine… or has it already? The Economist’s anonymous article, which has been much discussed, is now featured prominently on the front page of Ukrainska Pravda. This speaks volumes to those who know the game dynamics.
What is the purpose behind Biden‘s visit to Germany, on October 11-12? He plans to meet up with France and UK. It is possible that President Xi has already agreed to the “peace formula”. It’s possible that it has already been agreed upon, as neither party wants to risk delaying their geopolitical goals beyond November 5. This “formula”, which is not surprising, will be unsatisfactory to both Russia and Ukraine. Putin’s multipolar world may be loud and his nuclear stick may be flashed, but a bipolar society will not accommodate him.
Vladislav Olenchenko
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