(Ozge Elif Kizil/Anadolu via Getty Images) Artillery units from the 108th Territorial Defense Brigade, Ukrainian Army, fire at Russian positions using ‘Mini Grad’ multi-barrel launcher systems in Zaporizhzhia Oblast Ukraine on November 7, 2023. (Ozge Kizil/Anadolu through Getty Images).
Fears of an expanded Russian offensive in Zaporizhzhia Oblast have grown as Russian forces are reported to have made progress along the border area between Donetsk oblast and Zaporizhzhia Oblast and intensified air attacks on the regional capital.
“If they achieve an breakthrough, Russia will have the ability to fire on logistical routes that connect Zaporizhzhia with the east of Ukraine,” Southern Defense Forces spokeswoman Vladyslav Voloshyn stated earlier this month, in response to reports that Russian forces were amassing in preparation for a break-through in the direction Orikhiv, and Mala Tokmachka around 50 kilometers south of Zaporizhzhia.
“Russia will succeed at all costs to cut off our logistical support,” he said.
The developments occur at a critical time in the war. Both Russia and Ukraine are aiming to consolidate their positions before possible peace talks. In recent months, Russian troops have made significant advances in Ukraine’s eastern region, including the capture of Vuhledar, a key town, in early October.
Russia, despite having a significant advantage over Ukraine in terms of troops and weapons does not appear to be giving up its goal of capturing more Ukrainian territory. Zaporizhzhia Oblast in southeastern Ukraine is one of four oblasts that Russia claims it has annexed by September 2022. However, Ukrainian forces still control a third of this oblast including the regional capital.
Experts say it’s still too early to tell if these recent moves are the beginning of a major offensive against Zaporizhzhia Oblast. However, such an operation is unlikely in the near term, as Russia continues to focus on the eastern front.
John Hardie, deputy program director of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies’ Russia Program, told The Kyiv Independent that “I doubt Russia can sustain such an offensive, while continuing its offensive operations against Donetsk Oblast which seems to be a priority.”
What happened in Zaporizhzhia Oblast
According to reports, Russia has intensified their assaults along the border of the Donetsk oblast and Zaporizhzhia Oblast, following warnings from the Ukrainian military last month. They have reportedly made some limited tactical advances in recent days.
The Russian Defense Ministry announced on October 14 that its forces had taken the village of Levadne, located approximately 170 kilometers (105miles) from the city Zaporizhzhia.
Voloshyn, when asked about it by the Kyiv independent, said that the situation was “developing quite dynamically,” pointing out that neither side had the initiative. DeepState, a crowd-sourced monitoring organization, shows Levadne as being in the grey area by Oct. 16, 2024.
Russian and Ukrainian sources reported that Russian forces also advanced in the area southwest of Velyka Novosilka, near the village of Novodarivka.
According to a report by the Institute for the Study of War on October 14, Russian forces have conducted ground assaults in the last two days near Robotyne and Mala Tokmachka in the central part of Zaporizhzhia Oblast. However, no gains have been confirmed.
The area was the focal point of Ukraine’s southern counteroffensive 2023, which liberated Robotyne and other small settlements, but did not result in a significant breakthrough.
The renewed Russian push into Zaporizhzhia Oblast was not unexpected. Ukraine’s military has been reporting since late-September that Russian troops and equipment are being amassed to conduct assault operations in the area. Voloshyn, however, said that Russia only carried out local ground attacks and would need larger forces for a fully-blown offensive in this region.
Petro Andryushchenko shared a video of a large number of Russian troops transferring from Russian-occupied Novoazovsk, through Mariupol and Donetsk Oblast, to the occupied Polohy District, which is located nearer to the frontline in eastern Zaporizhzhia Oblast.
At the same, Russia has increased its air strikes against Zaporizhzhia. This has caused many civilian casualties and infrastructure damage. On Sept. 23, Russian troops used highly destructive guided aerial weapons against Zaporizhzhia. Prior to that, the city had only been targeted with drones and missiles.
Ivan Fedorov is the Governor of Zaporizhzhia Oblast. According to him, guided aerial bombs launched by Russia reach the city in minutes. These bombs are nearly impossible to shoot down and Russia produces them in large numbers.
What’s next?
According to experts interviewed by The Kyiv Independent, despite the constant threat of a broader Russian assault on all front lines, the current Russian actions in Zaporizhzhia Oblast are relatively limited. The primary focus is still on the Ukrainian-held areas of Donetsk Oblast.
Emil Kastehelmi is an analyst with the Finland-based Black Bird Group.
“Levadne hardly qualifies as a village. There are only a handful of buildings and the largest, which could have served as a vehicle shelter, has been destroyed. To capture Levadne, an advance of about three kilometers would be required over a few fields.
Hardie said that it is unclear whether the recent Russian advance near Levadne or Novodarivka signals a sustained axis in this area.
He said that “Russia had previously launched some attacks in the Velyka-Novosilka direction and captured Urozhaine, Staromaiorske, over the summer. However, nothing further came out of it.”
According to Hardie’s report, Russia is currently attacking Velyka Novosilka near Vuhledar from the Zolota Nyva region, which is “consistent” with Russia’s larger effort to push Ukrainian troops out of southern Donetsk Oblast.
Kastehelmi emphasized that these recent Russian ground assaults in Zaporizhzhia oblast were carried out by “relatively small forces”, suggesting that Russian forces haven’t switched their main areas of focus.
“It could be that they are just the decisions made by local commanders,” said he.
Konrad Muzyka is a defense analyst who focuses on Russia and Belarus, and is the head of Rochan consulting. He suggests that the Russian military does not have the capability to conduct large-scale offensive operations against Zaporizhzhia Oblast.
He said that Russia could be trying to give an impression that it is preparing something bigger to force Ukraine into spreading its forces and committing reserves.
In its report of October 13, the ISW reiterated this sentiment, stating that it had not observed Russia assembling the manpower and resource needed for a major assault like those seen in Eastern Ukraine.
It said that “Russian forces have, on the other hand, redeployed troops from the Donetsk – Zaporizhia Oblast and elsewhere in southern Ukraine in response to Ukraine’s incursion at Kursk.”
According to the ISW this reactivation of less active areas along the front line in southern Ukraine could be an attempt to “divert Ukrainian attention from Russia’s priority offensive operation in Donetsk Oblast and to fix Ukrainian troops along the front line in southern Ukraine.”
Hardie suggested that the situation could change if Ukraine unexpectedly withdrawn from Kursk Oblast and freed up Russian forces. “But that is obviously unlikely,” he said.
“And even if this were to happen, it is likely that Russia would choose to strengthen its offensives either in Donetsk Oblast (in Kharkiv Oblast) or the Kupiansk Direction.”
Dinara Khalilova, a former news editor at the Kyiv Independent newspaper, is now a reporter. She worked as a local producer and fixer for Sky News in Ukraine during the early weeks of Russia’s full-scale invasion. Dinara has a BA in Journalism from Taras Shevchenko National University of Kiev and a MA in Media and Communication from Bournemouth University in the U.K.
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