ISW cannot verify this claim, but other Russian sources speculate that the crash may have been caused by a malfunction or pilot error.
On 12 October, there were conflicting reports regarding the loss of a Russian Su-34. Some sources claimed that it was shot down a Ukrainian F-16. The Institute for the Study of War reported on these claims, but stated that it could not independently confirm them.
The think tank stated that “ISW can’t independently confirm the Telegram claim, but, if confirmed, it would be the first Ukrainian shootdown involving a Russian manned aircraft using a Western-provided F-16 jet fighter.”
According to ISW a Russian milblogger affiliated with Russian aviation posted a tribute on 12 October to a lost Su-34 plane, but no further details were provided. A prominent Russian milblogger confirmed that the Su-34 crew had died, but claimed that the loss was unrelated to Ukrainian activity.
A Russian Telegram channel, which was allegedly run by Russian airborne (VDV), officers and staff of Russian “Dnepr Grouping of Forces”, claimed that an Ukrainian F-16 fighter jet shot down the Russian Su-34. The channel claimed that the incident took place while the Su-34 dropped FAB glide bombs equipped with unified planning modules and correction modules (UMPK), at a distance around 50 kilometers from the frontline.
Later, the same Telegram channel addressed claims that the Su-34 crash could have been caused by technical malfunction or human errors. It was noted that such scenarios could still highlight issues related to the wear and tear on Russian aircraft, unprofessionalism of pilots, and fatigue among pilots.
The Telegram channel accused Kremlin-affiliated Milbloggers of lying and preventing Russian Forces from developing plans to combat the Ukrainian F-16 menace. The channel claimed that the Russian federal censor Roskomnadzor filed a complaint in March 2024 against it for “discrediting”. a Russian military command.
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