The Israeli military’s Arabic spokesperson posted a message on social media Saturday morning warning people in the ‘D5 area’ of northern Gaza to move South. D5 is the square that Israel Defense Forces has superimposed on maps of Gaza. It is a large block that is divided into several dozen smaller areas.
The latest message in a series said: “The IDF operates with great force against terrorist organisations and will do so for a very long time. The designated area and the shelters there are considered a dangerous battle zone. The area must be evacuated via Salah al-Din Road immediately to the humanitarian area.”
On the map, there is a large yellow arrow that points from block D5 to the southern part of Gaza. The main north-south road is Salah al-Din Road. The message does not promise a quick return to the areas where people had lived, an area which has been pulverised after a year of repeated Israeli strikes. The message’s core is that “great force… will be used for a long period of time” by the IDF. You can’t expect a return anytime soon.
Al-Mawasi is the humanitarian area that Israel has designated in the message. It was formerly an agricultural area near Rafah. It is overcrowded, and no safer than other parts of Gaza. BBC Verify has tracked 18 airstrikes in the area.
Hamas sent its own messages to 400,000 people in northern Gaza. This area was once the urban core of the Strip, with a population exceeding 1.4m. Hamas tells them to stay put. Hamas warns them that the south is just as dangerous. Hamas warns them they won’t be allowed to return.
Many people seem to be staying in place despite Israeli airstrikes. When I went to a place overlooking the northern Gaza, I could hear explosions as well as see columns of smoke rising. The intensity reminded of the first few months of the war.
Some people have stayed in the northern Gaza Strip when so many others had fled south to be with their vulnerable relatives. Some of them are from families that have Hamas connections. According to the laws of war this does not automatically make these people belligerents.
Over the past year, civilians who wanted to avoid IDF operation but did not want to take their chances in the dangerous and overcrowded south of Gaza have moved to the north. For example, from Beit Hanoun, to Gaza City. When the army moves, they return.
According to BBC colleagues who have daily contact with Palestinians living in Gaza, the IDF is trying its best to stop this from happening. It is directing families in one direction, down Salah al-Din – the main road towards the south.
Israel does not permit journalists to enter Gaza for the purpose of reporting the war except on rare, brief and closely supervised trips. Palestinian journalists who were in Gaza on 7 October are still doing brave work. According to the Committee to Protect Journalists, at least 128 Palestinian journalists in Gaza have died since the war began. Since Israel re-opened the offensive in northern Gaza, they have been filming families fleeing, with children often helping by carrying large backpacks.
One of them sent a short interview with a woman named Manar al-Bayar, who was rushing along the street carrying a child. She said as she half-walked and half-ran out of the Jabalia Refugee Camp that “they told [her] we had five minutes before we left the Fallujah School.” Where are we going? Assassinations are taking place in southern Gaza. In western Gaza, they are shelling people. Oh God, where do we go? God is our only hope.”
The journey is difficult. Palestinians in Gaza claim that the IDF sometimes fires on people moving. It insists on Israeli soldiers adhering to strict rules of engagement which respect international humanitarian law.
Liz Allcock, Medical Aid for Palestinians’ head of protection and head of the protection team, says that the evidence provided by injured civilians suggests they were targeted.
“When we receive patients in hospitals, many of these women and children, and people of non-combatant ages, are receiving direct shots into the head, spine, or limbs. This is very indicative of a direct targeted attack.”
UN and aid agencies working in Gaza say that Israeli military pressure is escalating what is already an humanitarian catastrophe.
Messages of desperation are being sent from the remaining Gaza hospitals, stating that they are running out of fuel to run the generators which keep the hospitals operating and keep severely injured patients alive. Some hospitals claim that Israelis have attacked their buildings.
Palestinians, UN agencies and relief agencies suspect that the IDF has adopted a new tactic known as “Generals’ Plan” to clear the northern Gaza. The plan was proposed by retired senior officers under the direction of Major-General (ret.) Giora Eiland, a former national adviser.
They are angry and frustrated, just like most Israelis, that Israel hasn’t achieved its war goals of destroying Hamas or freeing the hostages a year after the war began. The Generals’ Plan, a new idea, is a plan that its instigators think can break the deadlock from Israel’s point of view.
The idea at its core is that Israel can force Hamas to surrender and its leader Yahya sinwar by increasing pressure on the entire northern population. First, order civilians to evacuate along evacuation corridors which will take them south from Wadi Gaza. This east-west stream has become a dividing border in Gaza since Israel’s invasion last October.
Giora Eiland thinks Israel should have made a deal immediately to get the hostages returned, even if that meant withdrawing from Gaza completely. He says that a year later, other measures are needed.
In his office, located in central Israel he laid out the core of the plan.
“Since we have already encircled northern Gaza in the last nine or ten months, we should do the following: Tell all the 300,000. [The UN estimates that 400,000] residents who still live in northern Gaza that they must leave this area. They should be given a 10-day period to leave the area through safe corridors provided by Israel.
“And after this time, the entire area will be a military zone.” All Hamas members, whether they are fighters or civilians, will still have to choose between two options: either surrender or starve.
Israel is to seal off the area once the evacuation routes are closed. Anyone left behind will be treated as a combatant. The area would be in siege with the army blocking any supplies of food, drinking water, or other necessities. He believes that the pressure will become unbearable, and the remaining Hamas will quickly crumble. This would free the hostages and give Israel the victory they desire.
UN World Food Programme states that the current offensive is having “a disastrous impact on food security of thousands of Palestinian families”. It says that the main crossings to northern Gaza have been closed, and that no food aid has entered since 1 October. Air strikes have forced mobile kitchens and bakeries to stop working. After being hit by explosive munition, the only bakery in the north that is supported by WFP caught fire. The situation in the south is nearly as bad.
It is unclear whether the IDF adopted the Generals’ Plan fully or in part, but circumstantial evidence suggests that it has at least had a significant influence on the tactics used against the Gazan population. The BBC sent a list of IDF questions, but they were not answered.
Benjamin Netanyahu’s ultra-nationalist cabinet members want to replace Palestinians living in northern Gaza with Jewish settlements. Bezalel Schmotrich, the Finance Minister, has made many statements on the topic. He said, “Our heroic soldiers and fighters are destroying Hamas’ evil, and we will occupy Gaza Strip… To tell the truth, there isn’t security where there isn’t a settlement.”
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