The Ukrainian attack on Russian assets shows the country’s increasing capability to develop long-range domestic attack capabilities despite Western restrictions.
Ukraine has successfully converted its A-22 sport planes, produced domestically, into unmanned aerial vehicles with strike capabilities of up to 1300 km (880 miles) within Russia. This transformation demonstrates Ukraine’s growing expertise at developing long-range drones.
On 6 November 2024 Ukrainian forces successfully attacked three Russian warships in Kaspiysk (Dagestan), approximately 1000 km from the Ukrainian frontline, using a modified Aeroprakt A-22 converted into a drone.
Why attack ships so far away from the front?
BBC Ukraine reports that the Ukrainian GUR claimed the strike damaged “at the least two objects”. The objects could be the Gepard class frigates “Tatarstan”, “Dagestan”, or perhaps a Buyan M corvette. According to Anton Gerashchenko a former adviser to Ukraine’s interior ministry, if all three ships are damaged, it could affect up to a third of Russia’s Caspian Fleet missile-launching capability.
The Russian Caspian flotilla has vessels that can launch cruise missiles at Ukraine. Although the Black Sea Fleet is responsible for most of Russia’s seaborne missiles, it also has vessels that are capable of launching missiles. According to the Eurasian Research Institute there are ten of these vessels in the Caspian Sea.
The Project 11661 Gepard, and Project 21-631 Buyan M vessels are particularly capable of firing the infamous Kalibr missile. Militarnyi reports that the Buyan-M corvettes are each equipped with eight Kalibr cruise weapons. According to Rosboronexport the Gepard class frigates also carry eight missiles. According to the damage, Ukraine could have significantly weakened Russia’s Caspian Flotilla.
According to Pavel Aksonov a military expert who writes for BBC Ukraine, Ukraine chose the target because of the ships’ capability to launch long-range rocket strikes on Ukraine. Aksonov also suggests that the drone strike may be interpreted as a test of the air defenses at the naval base.
GeoConfirmed associate Dominik geolocated footage to a Kaspiysk neighborhood. It appears that sophisticated air defense systems are absent. Residents of Kaspiysk posted photos and videos of Ukrainian A-22 long range drones flying above the port city via Telegram, via Russian milblogger Baza. Small-arms fire was used to target the drones. One drone exploded in mid-air.
Ukraine’s DIY drones fly past Western-imposed range restrictions
Ukraine is looking for solutions to the Western restrictions on long range strikes. The Ukrainian drone is a good compromise between affordability and effectiveness.
Forbes reports that the A-22, despite only reaching 200 km/hr (126 mph), can carry a significant explosive payload at a price of $90,000. The unmanned flight characteristics are controlled by computer-controlled servos that monitor and manipulate the A-22’s flight controls in real time. This makes the drone less vulnerable to electronic warfare countermeasures.
Ukraine’s drone sector continues to grow, with the recent release of the Palianytsia rocket drone capable of hitting targets at a distance of up to 640 km.
The development of domestic strike capability is vital, given the restrictions imposed by Ukraine’s western partners on long-range attacks on Russian territory using western weapons.
The Biden administration has limited Ukraine’s use long-range weapons such as Storm Shadow/SCALP EG cruise missiles while European nations like Germany are reluctant to provide Taurus systems. Missiles with this capability can strike deep into Russian territories, striking oil infrastructure, ammunition stores, military installations, as well as the Kerch Bridge that connects occupied Crimea to Russia.
According to MBDA Systems, the Storm Shadow/SCALP EG is a British and French air-launched missile with a maximum range of more than 250 km (150 mi). Taurus Systems describes the Taurus as a German-Swedish cruise missile with a 500 km (300 mile) range.
Financial Times reported both systems cost between $1.4 and $1.7 million. The Ukrainian A-22 drone proves that, while it cannot outrun a missile, it can still beat its reach and cost.
Related:
Drones strike Russian Caspian Fleet base Dagestan, for the first time
* Lithuania allocates EUR10 million for the production and use of Ukrainian “Palianytsia”, jet drones, to facilitate attacks on Russian territories
* Airfield assassin – Ukraine’s Palianytsia Drone Threatens Russian Rear
Zelenskyy: Ukraine needs long-range weapons and permission to strike targets deep inside Russia
Kirby: US maintains ATACMS missile restriction for Ukraine, claiming 90% Russian planes beyond range
* Scholz: No immediate NATO invite for Ukraine during wartime; Tauruses supplied “wrong”.
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