Think 2024 was a wild ride? Eight global forces will make the year 2025 even more turbulent  

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**Global Turbulence: Guide to Coming Instability**

The world is facing unprecedented uncertainty and chaos. While many experts have analyzed this global turbulence, few have explored its underlying causes. Let’s break down how we got here.

**From to Instability**

The path to today’s instability began at the end of the Cold War in 1990. This period was marked by great certainty, with economic, political, , and cultural power concentrated in one center: the “Western world” and the United States. The rules were clear: comply or face consequences.

**Globalization and Its Consequences**

The of globalization that followed created multiple winners: transnational corporations profited from moving production to , while resource-rich countries like Russia benefited from rising commodity prices. China and its neighbors achieved dramatic economic growth by offering cheap labor to Western . However, beneath the surface, societies were transforming in vastly different ways.

**Authoritarianism Rises**

In Russia, a flood of petrodollars enabled Putin’s rise to power, allowing him to dismantle democratic institutions and establish authoritarian control. China followed a similar path, cementing its legitimacy by delivering basic prosperity to its population and consolidating power. Both countries eventually hit the “middle-income trap,” where easy economic gains are exhausted and further progress demands fundamental institutional reforms.

**The Way Forward**

For and democracies facing instability, it’s essential to understand these underlying causes. By navigating demographic, social, economic, , and scientific-technical shifts, we can work towards a more stable future.

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