The article discusses the current state of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the potential implications for a future peace deal between the two countries. The author argues that the United States should not provide Russia with an “offramp” or a way out, but rather apply maximum pressure on Russia to force it to accept a deal.
The article highlights several key points, including:
* Russia’s military has suffered significant setbacks in Ukraine, including the loss of control over Kherson and the degradation of its Black Sea fleet.
* The Russian economy is facing significant challenges, including inflation, labor shortages, and erosion of its sovereign wealth fund.
* The US has a range of tools at its disposal to apply pressure on Russia, including strikes against its energy sector and targeting the Kremlin across multiple theaters and domains.
The author concludes that the most effective driver of Russia’s economic losses is its sustained battlefield defeats, and that maximum pressure on Russia is impossible without US military support for Ukraine. The article argues that the US and its partners should ensure the Kremlin faces compounding pressure – on the battlefield and beyond – without easy ways to offset it.
Overall, the article suggests that a premature deal would risk letting Putin off the hook before he faces hard choices and mounting pressures – before Ukraine and the US attain a true position of strength.