**Trump’s Peace Plan for Ukraine: A Dubious Effort**
The incoming Trump administration has promised to bring peace to Ukraine, but its efforts may be more about making a deal than actually achieving peace. Donald Trump initially said he would end the war within days of taking office, but now says it will take time.
**Giving Away Leverage**
Despite holding all the cards, the Trump administration appears to be giving away its leverage to Russia’s Vladimir Putin. Instead of using its power to pressure Putin into making concessions, the US is signaling no NATO membership for Ukraine, no long-range missiles, and a halt to financial aid. This has shifted the debate from limiting Russian aggression to freezing front lines, which would allow Russia to retain control over Ukrainian territory.
**Security Guarantees**
For Ukraine, security is paramount in any peace deal. The country can survive losing some territories currently occupied by Russia, but its economic prospects depend on security guarantees. These could come through NATO membership, bilateral security assurances, or robust Western military and financial support.
**Consequences for Europe**
If Ukraine collapses, Europe faces dire consequences, including waves of Ukrainian refugees, fueling far-right populism, and a bolstered Russian military-industrial complex. A resurgent Russia might target the Baltics or Moldova next. Europe’s security hinges on Ukraine’s ability to defend itself as the front line against Russian aggression.
**European Responsibility**
With the US stepping back, Europe must wake up to its existential threat from Russia and take responsibility for Ukraine’s defense. A $150 billion annual price tag to support Ukraine is manageable for Europe’s $25 trillion economy. Unlocking the $330 billion in immobilized Russian central bank assets could provide Ukraine with significant financing.
**The “Trump Plan”**
European leaders should appeal to Trump’s economic priorities by framing support for Ukraine as a boon for US jobs, branding it as the “Trump Plan for the Defense of Europe” or a modern Marshall Plan. Unfortunately, European leaders remain in denial, ignoring the risks of a Trump presidency and failing to connect the dots between Ukraine’s security and their own. Ensuring Ukraine’s stability isn’t just about protecting one country—it’s about safeguarding the future of Europe as a whole.