Former US negotiator for the Russia-Ukraine Conflict says Trump wants to end the war before taking office. Success hinges on being tough with Putin, who will have demanding demands.
Donald Trump won the U.S. Presidential election on Nov. 6 after months of repeatedly claiming that he could end Russia’s full-scale invasion in Ukraine in a single day.
To do this, he’ll have to do what his resume says he does best – negotiate a deal.
Ambassador Kurt Volker has a wealth experience in dealing with issues Trump will likely face in relation to Russia’s war on Ukraine.
Volker was the U.S. Special Representative for Ukraine Negotiations in 2017-2019 during Trump’s former tenure. In this role he acted as an intermediary between Kyiv, and senior members of President Vladimir Putin’s government, while also coordinating with European Allies on efforts to stop Russia’s initial invasion into the eastern Donbas in 2014 following its occupation of Ukraine’s Crimean Peninsula that year.
Volker was the U.S. Ambassador to NATO in 2008-2009.
The Kyiv Independent interviewed Volker via video chat a few hours following the announcement of the election results. They asked him how he viewed outgoing U.S. president Joe Biden’s final months in office, Trump returning to the presidency and what this could mean for Ukraine.
This interview has been edited to make it shorter and more concise.
The Kyiv independent: There’s already been a lot said about what Trump will do in office. But we still have two months left of the Biden administration. Do you think that we can expect any surprises from Biden before his departure?
Kurt Volker : I’ve heard some discussion within the administration on the idea of making an gesture towards Ukraine’s NATO Membership, or about approving long-range weapons to strike deep inside Russia. This is something that the Biden Administration has denied up until now.
We must be very, extremely careful when it comes to NATO membership. You don’t wish to announce this prematurely. You don’t wish to have it uncoordinated. We missed the opportunity to do so before the Washington summit in summer. It does not seem wise to bring this up at the end of the Biden Administration. It needs to be coordinated better.
In terms of the use and possession of weapons, I believe the Biden administration is best advised to simply drop its objections. Let Ukraine use the weapons that we have given them. This can be done quietly. It doesn’t need to be a big deal. If the Biden administration insists, it can be done case-by-case.
There is no justification to allow Russia to attack Ukraine anywhere and to tell Ukraine they cannot strike back.
The Kyiv independent: How high on Trump’s agenda do you expect Ukraine to be once he takes office?
Kurt Volker : I believe he will make a call to Putin as soon as possible to tell him that he must stop the war and that the fighting must stop. This will lead to a discussion on how this can be achieved. What I expect is that Putin will make demands.
Putin will say “I need this. I need that. I need that.” I think Trump would say “no, stop the war.” But I think it will happen quickly. I don’t believe Trump wants this war to continue once he is in office.
The Kyiv independent: Trump is clearly proud of his ability to make deals. What is your opinion of Putin’s ability to negotiate a deal with you?
Kurt Volker says: I believe (Russian President Vladimir Putin) is the most cunning opponent you could ever have, because he has no problem with lying, deceiving, cheating or attacking. Putin’s interest does not lie in a deal. Putin’s interests are to take, and he wants all of Ukraine.
If you want to stop this war, and if you really want peace as Trump claims, you have to convince Putin that the war will cost him too much. This will require a lot more strength.
Trump has also spoken about this. He describes Biden as a very weak President.
Trump is a strong man, and this implies that he sees himself in that light. He’ll need to show strength to Putin to convince him that it’s the right time to end this war.
The Kyiv independent: Can you give us some examples of how Trump could show his strength?
Kurt Volker : I believe the first thing Trump is going to do is increase U.S. production of oil and gas, to flood global markets as much cheap energy possible. This will be good for both the U.S. and global economies. It will also be bad for Putin’s budget. I think he’s almost certain to do that.
Second, I think he’ll reshape Middle East by taking a direct, tough approach to Iran. He will also try to realign Saudi Arabia with Israel and bring them back together. It will take time and be difficult, but it will make a big difference. And it will show a new way of dealing with world for both Putin and the Chinese President Xi Jinping.
When it comes to Ukraine, I think that he will seek support for a loan-lease program. This would allow Ukraine to borrow money to buy American arms. It was something that had been on the books for over two years but never used by the Biden administration.
I don’t believe Trump wants to spend American tax payers’ money on Ukraine. Instead, he wants to allow Ukraine to borrow the money it needs to defend themselves. I think he’d be inclined to do so. If you make the number large enough, say $500 billion, it should be enough for Putin to realize that he cannot outspend that amount, he cannot win that amount, and it could also lead to a settlement.
The Kyiv Independent : If Trump showed anything during his last tenure in office, it was the fact that he is quite unpredictable. What are some of the most unlikely scenarios you can imagine?
Kurt Volker : I assume that’s what Putin thinks about. Can Putin create an unexpected scenario? Can he create a scenario that is completely unexpected and throw us off course? Maybe Putin will come up with a much more reasonable proposal than anything Putin has put forward so far. Can this distract us? I think this would be the most likely scenario.
The Kyiv Independent : Kyiv is in a somewhat somber mood this morning. Do you think it’s justified or should Ukrainians have more optimism?
Ambassador Kurt Volker : I would not say that people should be somber or optimistic. I would say that people need to stay determined. Ukraine is fighting for its life. It must win.
It was not ideal under the Biden Administration, and it would not have been either under (Kamala Harris). We saw the U.S. as slow, reactive, unwilling to give Ukraine the needed weapons, unwilling to give them authorization to use these weapons — an excessively conservative approach, one that was worried too much about the escalation and not really designed to help Ukraine.
What I believe we have now with Trump is an opportunity to compete. We can see if we can get a more powerful Western position on Ukraine that could be decisive.
But it is not guaranteed. With Harris, we knew exactly where we were headed. With Trump, we may not know where we are going, but I believe we can still compete.
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