**The Rollercoaster Ride of US-Russia Relations**
Imagine a rollercoaster ride that’s as unpredictable as the twists and turns of US-Russian relations. That’s what it feels like with President Donald Trump at the helm, navigating the complex geopolitics of the 47th US presidency.
The phrase “Amerikanskiye gorki” – American Hills – is fitting for this rollercoaster ride. With highs and lows, twists and turns, you never know quite where you are now. Analysing geopolitical trends is hard enough at the best of times, but careering along on the American Hills of Trump’s presidency makes it even more challenging.
**A Thaw in Relations**
In January, when Trump returned to the White House, his direction of travel was clear: he aimed to repair relations with Russia. There were phone calls between Trump and Putin, high-level US-Russia negotiations, and Washington voting with Moscow against a UN resolution that identified Russia as the “aggressor” in its war against Ukraine. Whenever the Trump administration exerted pressure, it was always on Kyiv, never on the Kremlin.
**A Week of Surprises**
But then, last week’s surprise: Vladimir Putin proposed replacing President Volodymyr Zelensky‘s administration with “external governance” in Ukraine under UN auspices. Trump responded by saying he was “angry” with Putin, citing his disappointment with comments made about Zelensky.
Trump threatened to impose secondary tariffs of up to 50% on Russian oil exports if Russia didn’t cooperate on a Ukraine peace deal. A bi-partisan group of US senators went further, drawing up a bill that would impose 500% secondary tariffs on countries purchasing Russian oil, gas, and other resources.
**A Shift in Tone**
The Russian press had been welcoming the thaw in relations between Moscow and Washington. But this week, things changed. Moskovsky Komsomolets accused the Trump administration of “administrative insanity,” while Komsomolskaya Pravda declared that Donald’s mood changes as often as the wind.
**Sanctions and Diplomatic Efforts**
Despite these tense moments, Russia wasn’t on the list when Trump announced his sweeping tariffs this week. Instead, US authorities granted a sanctions waiver to Kirill Dmitriev, Putin’s foreign investment envoy, who flew into Washington for talks with the Trump administration. This might be seen as a sign of Russia and America getting along.
However, at a meeting of Nato foreign ministers in Brussels, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio warned that President Trump won’t fall into endless negotiations about negotiations. Rubio said they’ll know soon whether Russia is serious about peace or not, and if not, Washington will re-evaluate its stance.
**The Bigger Picture**
So, what’s the bigger picture here? For months, Donald Trump’s team has avoided criticising Putin and Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Key White House officials have repeatedly embraced Kremlin talking points. While Washington says it’s growing impatient with Russia, no sanctions have been imposed… yet.
Will the Trump administration pressure Moscow into ending the war? And would the Kremlin allow itself to be pressured into doing so? These are key questions as Russia’s war on Ukraine continues.
**Observing from a Distance**
It’s like trying to follow each twist and turn on this rollercoaster ride. Sometimes it’s better observing from a distance, helping us identify the bigger picture: US-Russian relations under Trump’s presidency have become increasingly unpredictable, with highs and lows, twists and turns. The future remains uncertain.
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