On October 3rd, the British Defense Ministry released an intelligence update stating that the Russian missile strike on the merchant vessel Aya in the Black Sea on September 11th was most likely unintentional. This was in response to reports from Ukraine’s Air Force that Russia had launched two Kh-22/32 cruise missiles towards Zmiinyi Island. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy also claimed that a Russian bomber had fired a missile at a civilian cargo ship near Zmiinyi Island, posing a threat to global food security. However, the British report suggests that the missile involved was a Kh-22 anti-ship missile, launched by a Tu-22M3 BACKFIRE bomber, and that a detonation failure likely prevented major damage to the ship.
The MV Aya, which was hit by a Russian missile near Zmiinyi Island in the Black Sea. Photo: Zelenskyy’s Telegram.
According to the UK Defense Ministry, on September 11th, 2024, the MV Aya was struck by a missile while traveling from the Ukrainian port of Odesa to Egypt with over 26 thousand tons of grain. It is highly probable that the missile was an AS-4 KITCHEN anti-ship missile launched by a Tu-22M3 BACKFIRE bomber that was operating in the area. However, it is unlikely that the MV Aya was the intended target and was most likely hit due to poor targeting procedures by Russian pilots using an outdated weapon.
Russia has a history of attacking targets along Ukraine’s Black Sea coastline, including Zmiinyi Island, in an attempt to disrupt export activity and weaken military assets in the area. After losing a BACKFIRE bomber in April of this year, it is likely that Russia has been more cautious with their strike operations in the Black Sea. It is possible that this incident occurred because the pilots mistakenly identified the MV Aya as their target and launched the missile in a hurry to avoid being targeted by Ukrainian surface-to-air missiles.
The KITCHEN missile has consistently underperformed in the conflict in Ukraine. Launching a supersonic cruise missile in the wrong direction against a potentially incorrect target in international waters shows a lack of responsibility and poor aviation practices.
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