After destroying most of Ukraine’s thermoelectric energy generation, Russian airstrikes increasingly aim to disconnect Ukraine’s nuclear power plants from the electricity network
The winter in Ukraine will be the toughest since the full-scale invasion began. Russia is aiming to cut off Ukraine’s nuclear power after bombing out half of its electricity production sector with large-scale air attacks.
As of now, Russia does not directly attack the plants using missiles or kamikaze drones. Moscow has targeted nearby infrastructure such as substations that contain crucial equipment, like transformers, and power lines connecting the nuclear plants to grid.
“We live in a world with a deficit (of functioning infrastructure) in Ukraine. The Kyiv Independent quoted Tim Gould, Chief Economist at the International Energy Agency (IEA), as saying that this winter would be the most difficult yet.
According to Wojciech Jakabick, an energy analyst based in Warsaw, if Russian attacks succeed in disconnecting all power plants from the grid then Ukraine’s one stable power source will be gone.
“(Nuclear energy) is a baseload capability, which cannot be replaced by renewables or other sources and, especially, not by imported energy,” he told The Kyiv Independent.
“With a smaller nucleus capacity in place, Ukraine’s flexibility and ability to stabilize energy generation will be reduced.”
In the last year, Russian strikes have caused Ukraine to lose 9 gigawatts in power generation. This includes eight thermal plants and 5 hydro plants. The Kyiv independent reported that while companies are scrambling to repair their damaged assets and equipment, Russia is preparing to attack Ukraine’s nucleic infrastructure. This would cause Ukrainians to be frozen out and create a humanitarian emergency if Ukraine can’t quickly repair and protect its nuclear infrastructure.
Ukraine will rely heavily on the three nuclear power plants that remain under government control after the occupation of Zaporizhzhia in 2022. 60% of the country’s power is provided by these plants. The last mass assault on August 26 forced Ukraine to shut down three units at the Rivne & South Ukraine plants. This led to weeks of power outages.
Energoatom, the state-owned nuclear power company of Ukraine, told the Kyiv Independent all its power plants are ready to run at “maximum” capacity during the heating season. The company also connected a refurbished 1 Gigawatt nuclear power plant to the grid in October. It has only recently announced plans for additional fortifications that will protect power plants against attacks.
According to the Kyiv-based DiXi Group, Ukrainians could face another round similar to those in the summer, which could last up to eight hours per day. The UNHCR told the Kyiv Independent that freezing temperatures during power cuts will cause pipes to freeze, cutting off Ukrainians from water and heating and causing another wave of refugees.
The press office of the Energy Ministry said that attacks on nuclear infrastructure increase the risk of accidents. According to the International Energy Agency, while Jakobik believes that a Chernobyl scenario is unlikely, as the reactors are well-protected, damage to the substations may prevent backup electricity supplies to reactors.
The EU and U.S. Embassy both told the Kyiv Independent they were stepping in to help boost the energy sector before winter, with financial support, backup gear, and humanitarian assistance. The Energy Ministry’s Press Office said that with Russia constantly churning and firing its missiles, drones and other weapons, the only tangible way to ensure energy security was a stronger air defense.
Time is running out and there are no other options
During the initial years of the full scale invasion, Ukraine relied upon different facilities within its massive sector of energy to survive the initial assaults on energy infrastructure. It even managed to export power to the EU. This changed this year, after a series of attacks that began in March decimated 50% of Ukraine’s energy assets.
Now, Ukraine is out of options. It has switched from exporting electricity to importing it from its European neighbors.
Winter power outages seem inevitable. Blackouts are expected to last 4-18 hours per day, depending on weather and attacks, according to the United Nations Human Rights Monitoring Mission. This will cause living conditions for millions of citizens to crumble.
The deficit in electricity supply could reach 6 gigawatts. Gould said that the deficit is equivalent to the peak demand in Denmark.
The press office of the Energy Ministry said that Ukraine’s nuclear power is the last foundation for its energy stability. It is therefore the main target for Russian attacks. The Ukrainian government is trying to decentralize its power grid as soon as possible. However, this will not be achieved by winter. Private energy companies are desperately trying to restore their assets in order to strengthen the grid.
Olena Lapenko is the general manager of DiXi Group’s Field of Security and Resilience. She said that Ukraine hopes to recover three gigawatts before the end of this year. Ukrenergo, the state-owned electricity grid operator, estimates that $1.5 billion is needed for quick repairs during this season. Ukraine has received 766 million euros (766 million dollars) so far from its energy support funds in cooperation with the European Commission. Winter is approaching.
The fund will cover the cost of equipment such as autotransformers to repair facilities as quickly as possible that have been damaged by Russian air strikes. Jakobik said that simple repairs around nuclear power plants, such as power lines, can usually be done within 24 hours. He said that specialized equipment is dependent on Western allies delivering it, which can take several months unless stockpiles are readily available.
“The hard part is that you replace the old parts with new ones and Russia attacks them again,” he said.
DTEK, Ukraine’s largest private energy firm owned by its richest person Rinat Akhmetov has lost 90% of the thermal plant capacity due to Russian attacks. By winter, DTEK hopes to restore 60-65% thermal power that was damaged during the spring. Oleksiy POVOLOTSKY, DTEK’s head of Recovery Office, said that even this would be insufficient to replace nuclear energy if all plants were disconnected.
Povolotskiy also pointed out that the war had a negative impact on Ukraine’s manual workers, despite the massive damage. DTEK is bringing workers from other companies, such as miners, to clear debris. The company has asked European countries to send engineers and machinery to help with more complex repairs.
Ukraine is paying a high price for Russian attacks. DTEK, which has its own budget, has already spent $80 million on repairs. Povolotskiy says that instead of relying solely on equipment to soften the impact of attacks and power failures, the best solution would be for Western allies of Ukraine to provide additional air-defense system.
“Partners must understand that it’s cheaper and more efficient to protect energy facilities than to repair them,” he said.
The U.S. Embassy in Ukraine informed Kyiv Independent the Defense Department would provide an additional Patriot Battery and missiles, but did not specify whether this was for the protection of energy installations. This is the only delivery of an air defense battery that has been confirmed so far, despite Washington’s $2.6 billion aid package pledged on September 26. The package includes munitions, support for air defence systems, and a Patriot battery.
Unprepared and extremely exposed
The Ukrainian government, which does not have any additional air-defense systems in the pipeline at this time, is building protective constructions to protect substations from falling debris and drones. Not enough constructions were built in time for the winter, and contractors were allegedly not fully paid.
Povolotskiy stated that “more concrete constructions should be built as quickly as possible.”
Yuliia Kyian told the Kyiv Independent, during a discussion held in Kyiv, on October 2, that these constructions are costly and take a long time to build. She added that they also can’t withstand missile attacks.
Energoatom was criticized. In September and Octember, the company signed contracts for the construction of a $12.3-million shield around the Rivne nuclear power plant and a $14.4-million shield around the South Ukraine Plant in Mykolaiv Oblast. Nashi Groshi, a Ukrainian anti-corruption watchdog, reported that the contracts only came into effect after President Volodymyr Zelensky informed the UN Security Council of Russia’s plans to attack the three nuclear plants.
Lapenko, from DiXi Group, said: “It’s difficult to understand why this wasn’t done earlier.”
“No one could have imagined that the Russians would target directly the nuclear power plants as this is a serious danger to nuclear safety. But we cannot exclude such a situation.”
The press office of the Energy Ministry said that a nuclear disaster would threaten all of Europe. It added that the international community must unite in order to prevent such a catastrophe. Kyiv has asked the UN’s Nuclear Agency (IAEA), to place more monitoring missions around its power stations, but no agreement has yet been reached.
Jakobik stated that international observers will ensure safety standards are enforced in the plants and fight disinformation. Moscow denies Ukraine’s claims of endangering nuclear security. Russia could still pound nuclear facilities until it becomes dangerous to stay and force evacuations.
He said that “Russia is not an accountable stakeholder in nuclear sector”.
“It uses energy terrorism against Ukraine.” “You can’t be sure what Russia is up to,” the energy analyst said.
Note from the Author:
Hi, it’s Dominic Culverwell. I’m grateful that you read the article. I hope you didn’t feel too depressed. We are all preparing ourselves for a harsh winter, but we know that Ukraine will survive and adapt to the difficult future ahead. Please consider supporting us so that we can continue to tell important stories about Ukraine.
Dominic is the Kyiv Independent’s business reporter. He has written for several publications, including the Financial Times and Radio Free Europe/Liberty. Dominic was previously a disinformation specialist with StopFake, debunking Russian false news in Europe. Read more
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