Key developments for Nov. 1, 2018:
US announces new $425 million military aid package
* Ukrainian drone targets oil depot in Stavropol Krai, Russian governor claims
Bloomberg reports that Russia has seized more territory in the past week than it will ever do until 2024
The Russian military has said that the number of drone strikes against Ukraine in October was at a record high.
Estonian intelligence reports that North Korean troops may suffer greater losses in Ukraine than Russian troops.
According to a press release from the U.S. Defense Department, Washington announced on November 1 a new package of military aid for Kyiv valued at $425 million.
The U.S. Secretary for Defense Lloyd Austin, and Secretary of State Antony Blinken had said in a joint press briefing the day before that they would “soon”, provide Ukraine with a new aid package due to North Korean troops being involved in Russia’s conflict.
The recent military assistance was provided under the Presidential Drawdown Authority, which removes weapons from U.S. stockpiles.
The list of aid includes ammunition for NASAMS missiles systems, Stinger missiles and ammunition for HIMARS rockets systems. It also includes tube-launched optically tracked and wire-guided TOW missiles as well as AT-4 anti-armor and Javelin systems.
Washington will also supply Kyiv with Stryker armored vehicles, counter-unmanned aircraft systems (cUAS) equipment, munitions and some medical equipment.
Lloyd Austin, the U.S. Secretary of Defense, announced during his visit to Kyiv in October that the U.S. has recently allocated another $400 million military assistance package for Ukraine.
Austin arrived in Kyiv unannounced to discuss the future of support as the U.S. Presidential election approaches.
There are growing concerns that if former President Donald Trump, the Republican nominee, wins against Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris in the Democratic presidential primary, he could withdraw or reduce U.S. assistance for Ukraine, forcing Ukraine to make painful concessions.
Despite U.S. aid, Russian forces continue to advance in eastern Ukraine while the country prepares for new strikes against its power grid as winter approaches.
On October 30, President Volodymyr Zelensky said that the U.S. had transferred to Ukraine almost 10% of the $61 billion approved by Congress in April 2020.
Ukrainian drone targets oil depot in Stavropol Krai, Russian governor claims
Vladimir Vladimirov, the governor of Russia’s Stavropol Krai, claimed that a Ukrainian drone crashed on the territory of a oil depot in Svetlograd overnight on November 1, 2018.
According to the Russian Defense Ministry, Russian air defenses shot down 36 drones overnight over Kursk Oblast. They also shot down 20 drones over Bryansk Oblast. Twelve drones were shot over the occupied Crimea. Eight drones were shot over Voronezh Oblast. Four over Oryol Oblast. And three over Belgorod Oblast.
The Russian Baza Telegram posted a video purportingly showing a drone exploding in the oil depot at Svetlograd.
Svetlograd is a town with around 35,000 inhabitants, located over 600 km (372 miles), southeast of the Ukrainian border in Donetsk Oblast.
No injuries or damage has been reported. Vladimirov reported that emergency services were on the scene.
Alexander Bogomaz claimed that a drone had hit an apartment in the city Bryansk, overnight, and injured one person.
Kyiv is yet to comment on the reports that cannot be independently verified.
In recent months, Ukrainian forces launched a series drone strikes to damage Russia’s oil sector, whose profits fuel Moscow’s war efforts.
According to reports, a Ukrainian drone struck an oil refinery on October 31 in the city Ufa of Russia’s Bashkortostan republic, which is located about 1,500 kilometers away from Ukraine’s borders.
Bloomberg reports that Russia has seized more territory in the past week than it will ever do until 2024.
Bloomberg reported on November 1, that the DeepState map, which tracks battlefield changes with the Ukrainian Defense Ministry in coordination, had allowed Bloomberg Intelligence to calculate that Russia had seized more ground in its war against Ukraine in the past week than it has at any other point in 2024.
In recent months, Russian forces have made a relentless advance in eastern Ukraine. They gained territory while suffering heavy losses.
The media outlet reported that Russia has captured 1,146 sq km (442 sq miles) of Ukraine since August 6, about a quarter greater than the first seven months. Bloomberg reported that the Russian military has also advanced 200 square kilometers (77 sq miles) in the last week.
Bloomberg spoke with an official from the office of President Volodymyr Zelensky who said that as Russia gains ground on the battlefield, Ukrainian officials become more depressed about the future of the war.
According to Estonian intelligence, Moscow has taken over 150 square kilometers (58 sq miles) of the Donetsk front line in the last week.
Ukraine has yet to confirm the reports that Russian troops have captured the town Selydove. Bloomberg reported that Russia’s next target is the towns of Poskovsk, and Kurakhove. These are important logistical hubs in Ukraine.
Observers, as well as the Ukrainian military, have warned about the increasingly difficult situation in the city due to the Russian forces’ aggressive advance over the last few weeks.
The Ukrainian military announced on October 29 that it had repulsed 11 Russian attacks, including those near Selydove.
According to the military, Russian drone strikes against Ukraine reached a record monthly level in October.
The General Staff reported that Russia launched more than 2,00 strike drones against Ukraine in October, breaking the previous record of nearly 700 set in September.
According to the report, a total of 2,023 aircraft were recorded. According to the report, 1,185 of these were “lost” and 29 flew out of Ukraine’s sky.
No information has been given about the remaining 71 drones, but many strikes by Russian drones have been reported in October, including recent attacks in Kyiv that killed two people, including a 15 year-old girl.
According to the General Staff of Russia, a total of 6,987 drones have been launched since the beginning of the year. This means that 29% of these were launched in the last month.
The total is much higher than the previous record set in September.
According to Ukraine’s Air Force 1,339 Shahed type kamikaze drones were launched against the country in September. 1,107 of them were shot down. There were no details on the 45 drones that have not been found.
Moscow has increased drone strikes while reducing the use of cruise and ballistic missiles that are more powerful and difficult to intercept.
Experts who spoke with the Kyiv independent said that this could be a preparation for a mass attack of unprecedented proportions, rather than any kind of restraint by the Kremlin.
“UAVs” (unmanned aerial vehicle/drones) could be used as a pathfinder, Sidharth kaushal, senior research fellow at Royal United Service Institute.
“A tool that forces (an air defense radar) to light up. This allows the Russians map the layout of defenses in and around Kyiv, as well as other relatively well-defended cities.”
Kaushal and others warn that Moscow’s reliance upon drones rather than missiles is likely to be a sign of an aerial attack of great magnitude in the near future.
Fabian Hoffmann is a defense specialist and doctoral researcher at the University of Oslo. He told the Kyiv Independent that it has been a long time since we have seen a large-scale nuclear strike.
“Part of it could be related to the fact that they are ramping-up not just for one, but possibly several more mass strikes with the goal of disintegrating Ukraine’s electric grid in a short time period,” he said.
It could also be to allow comprehensive follow-up attacks after initial blows are dealt to ensure it cannot be repaired.
Estonian intelligence reports that North Korean troops may suffer greater losses in Ukraine than Russia.
According to Estonian Colonel Ants Kivieselg, the head of the Estonian Defense Forces Intelligence Center (ERR), the losses suffered by North Korean troops in Ukraine could be greater than those suffered by Russian troops, he told the Estonian Public Broadcaster ERR on November 1.
HUR, Ukraine’s military Intelligence (HUR), reported that the first North Korean soldiers had been deployed to Russia’s Kursk Oblast by late October. HUR reports that North Korea has sent 12,000 troops, including 500 officers, three generals and 500 soldiers, to Russia.
Kiviselg stated that North Korean soldiers are trained to fight in mountainous terrain and are therefore unfamiliar with the climate and geography of Ukraine.
“Their training doesn’t include combat operations under such conditions and the training that they receive in the Russian Federation certainly isn’t of a high level,” Kiviselg stated.
“We can therefore expect North Korean units will suffer heavy losses in Ukraine and probably more than Russian Federation forces have suffered to date.”
He said that the North Korean soldiers arrived in Kursk Oblast “early October” after undergoing two to four weeks’ training. Kiviselg said that the North Korean soldiers were then redeployed on the “Ukrainian Front” after completing their training.
Kiviselg stated that the arrival of North Korean troops on the Ukrainian front is likely to take place in phases.
If this additional deployment, training and arrival of (North Koreans) units on the Ukrainian front continue in the long-term, it could bring about some changes.
According to U.S. Intelligence, 8,000 North Korean soldiers have been deployed in Russia’s Kursk Oblast for the war against Ukraine.
According to the Financial Times, Ukrainian intelligence officials have doubts about the combat effectiveness of North Korean troops. They cite communication issues with their Russian equivalents as the biggest hurdle Moscow and Pyongyang must overcome.
North Korea’s entry in the war comes as Russia’s long-running campaign in Ukraine’s eastern Donetsk oblast has gained dramatic momentum in recent days. Analysts claim that Russian forces are advancing faster than they have in the past few months.
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