**Ukrainians Turn to Nuclear Option Over NATO Membership**
A recent survey by the New Europe Center shows a significant shift in Ukrainian public opinion on security guarantees. More people now favor developing nuclear weapons over joining NATO.
The November 2024 poll found that 31.3% of Ukrainians believe that having nuclear weapons is their best security guarantee, just ahead of NATO membership at 29.3%. This is a dramatic change from last year’s results, when slightly more people supported NATO membership as a security guarantee.
**Growing Self-Reliance**
The survey suggests that Ukrainians are increasingly turning to self-reliance as the best policy for their country’s defense. This shift comes after witnessing Western hand-wringing and uncertainty over Ukraine‘s NATO bid.
Many in Ukraine feel that the Budapest Memorandum, which gave up nuclear arms in exchange for security assurances from the US, UK, and Russia, proved useless when Russia invaded. French Ambassador Gaël Veyssière acknowledges this calculus, saying it’s a “logical thing” to want to rebuild independent nuclear deterrence capabilities.
**Falling Trust in Western Security Commitments**
US President Biden’s trust rating has dropped significantly among Ukrainians, with 27 percentage points fewer people trusting him compared to last year. This reflects falling trust in Western security commitments and a desire for self-reliance.
However, Alyona Getmanchuk of the New Europe Center suggests that this nuclear sentiment might decrease if NATO demonstrates a serious commitment to Ukrainian membership. She notes that an invitation to NATO would likely lead to dropping interest in developing nuclear weapons.
**Alternative Security Guarantees**
Ukraine has secured alternative security guarantees by concluding 27 documents with other countries. These agreements ensure that aid to Ukraine will not fall below 2024 levels and continue for 10 years.
However, these bilateral agreements are seen as temporary solutions, and Ukraine’s Foreign Ministry has stressed that it will settle for nothing less than full NATO membership after the failed Budapest Memorandum.
**Support for Partial NATO Membership**
A recent statement by the Ukrainian Foreign Ministry also suggests growing support for a “German-style” partial NATO accession model. This would involve receiving an invitation to NATO within internationally recognized borders, with Article 5 applied only to unoccupied territories.
Seventy-three percent of Ukrainians now support this gradual accession model, which was initially met with skepticism in Ukraine last year. However, some critics fear that it might legitimize Russia’s rule over occupied regions and challenge NATO credibility.
**Last Chance for the West**
Diplomatic circles also see partial NATO membership as a last chance to avoid losing the war amid creeping Russian occupation of more land. However, critics assert that this is unrealistic, particularly given Ukraine’s pledge to abandon attempts to regain Russian-held territories militarily.
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