**Ukraine and Russia May Choose War Over Peace Deal**
A recent US intelligence assessment suggests that Ukraine and Russia may be more likely to prolong the war rather than accepting an unfavorable peace deal. This finding is based on a report by US Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard.
According to the report, both Ukrainian and Russian leaders see the risks of a longer war as less than those of an unsatisfying settlement. This means that they may prefer to continue fighting rather than accept a peace deal that does not meet their demands.
**Contrasting Views**
This assessment contradicts the views of US President Donald Trump, who had hoped to negotiate and secure a quick peace deal, possibly by Easter. However, discussions between the US and Russia in Saudi Arabia led to an agreement on implementing a ceasefire in the Black Sea and banning strikes against energy infrastructure.
**Russia’s Conditions for Ceasefire**
However, Russia has set conditions for implementing the ceasefire, which includes lifting Western sanctions on Russian banks involved in international food trade operations. President Volodymyr Zelensky accused Russia of manipulating these conditions to secure a Black Sea ceasefire agreement.
**Risks of Prolonged War**
The intelligence report notes that both leaders understand the risks of a prolonged war, including continued economic disruptions for Moscow and potential impacts on Kyiv’s standing on the battlefield. The report also suggests that conceding territory or neutrality to Russia without substantial security guarantees from the West could prompt domestic backlash and future insecurity.
**Ukraine’s Commitment to Peace**
President Zelensky has repeatedly expressed his commitment to ending the war in 2025, even suggesting that he would step down as president if it meant achieving peace for Ukraine. However, the intelligence assessment suggests that prolonging the war may be a more attractive option for both Ukrainian and Russian leaders at this time.
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