**Ukraine’s Peace Talks Hinge on US Support**
The ongoing war between Ukraine and Russia has left the country exhausted. With low manpower, ammunition, and morale, Ukraine is facing a difficult balancing act.
A recent Gallup survey found that 52% of Ukrainians want their country to negotiate an end to the war as soon as possible. However, the terms of such a settlement would depend on Washington as much as Kyiv.
**Trump’s Uncertainty**
US President-elect Donald Trump has been vocal about Russia’s war against Ukraine, but his stance is uncertain. He has promised to end the war within 24 hours without providing details and called Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky “the greatest salesman”.
Trump’s son, Donald Trump Jr., has opposed outgoing US President Joe Biden’s decision to allow Ukraine to strike targets deep inside Russia with Western-provided long-range missiles. This has unsettled Kyiv.
**Concerns Over Trump’s Nominations**
Another concern is Trump’s nominations for key positions, including individuals with controversial views on Ukraine. Tulsi Gabbard, nominated as director of national intelligence, has echoed Russian propaganda by promoting false claims that Ukraine was hosting US-funded biolabs.
Pete Hegseth, a candidate for defense secretary, has co-authored a peace plan proposing to freeze the front line in Ukraine, delay NATO accession indefinitely, and partially lift sanctions on Russia. This has fueled concerns in Kyiv that the new administration will push to freeze the war along current front lines.
**Russia’s Goals**
Russia’s goals include occupying more territory in Ukraine’s Donetsk Oblast and pushing Ukrainian forces out of Russia’s Kursk Oblast. Moscow may also aim to retake northeastern Kharkiv Oblast, with Russian forces currently threatening Kupiansk, a city that was recently liberated from Russian control.
**Poland’s Concerns**
The potential shift in US policy under Trump has alarmed not just Kyiv but also its allies in Europe. Poland, which shares a direct stake in Ukraine’s survival and regional stability, is bracing for the impact of a reduced American commitment.
Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk has expressed concerns about Trump’s unpredictability and its implications for Ukraine. He warned that we must expect the worst, and that a forced ceasefire on Putin’s terms could lead to renewed conflict and greater instability in Eastern Europe.
**A Window of Opportunity**
Despite these challenges, there is a golden opportunity to persuade the new administration to take decisive action. Ending the war for good is within reach, but it will require granting Ukraine NATO membership and reclaiming territories currently occupied by Russia.
The US has the leverage to compel the Kremlin to negotiate and to force meaningful concessions. Key economic tools include lowering global oil prices, tightening sanctions enforcement, and cutting off Moscow’s ability to sustain its war effort financially.
To support Ukraine, the US could also tap into frozen Russian assets to fund the military hardware Ukraine still needs. A critical window of opportunity is on the horizon, and the US has the tools to seize it. Now, it’s up to Kyiv to convince Trump that this is the path forward.