Vladislav Davidzon, a journalist and author, has just published a book entitled From Odessa With Love. Davidzon has been researching Ukraine, the post-Soviet region and other countries for many years. He writes for The Tablet magazine in France and for the Atlantic Council. Radio Free Europe interviewed him in Odessa, where he shared his views on the war and the conflicting images of leaders from Russia and Ukraine.
Why is Russia not trying to take Odessa from the sea?
Firstly, the weather was bad until yesterday. Now that the weather is nice, they may try to do this. They are also expecting their guys to capture Mariupol, so they can bring troops and artillery from the other side. They are afraid of an assault on the beaches because it would be bloody, and the Ukrainians had mined the beaches. They could bomb Odessa, but that would destroy the city center. Odessa has a beautiful, historical, and symbolic significance. I don’t believe Russians would want to see Odessa turned into a wreck.
The Russian army‘s sheer stupidity and incompetence has narrowed the gap between their capacity and that of the Ukrainian army.
Why did Ukraine not fall in three days as US intelligence so helpfully forecasted?
The gap between Russian and Ukrainian capabilities has been narrowed by the stupidity and corruption of the Russian Army, as well as their own belief that they are capable of doing things that they are not. They also ignored a Russian military doctrine that says to first use heavy firepower before sending in troops. This is what they did in Chechnya, and later in Georgia.
They also did not expect such a level of resistance. They never expected this level of hatred towards them from the Ukrainians. The Russian-speaking Ukrainians thought that the Ukrainian army would flee. They didn’t expect that the West would give Ukraine so many anti-tank guns.
They did not expect such a level of competence from Ukrainians when defending their homes. They thought that they would fall and lay down.
Add in the Russian conscripts and police officers who have been smuggled into the country: they never agreed to this. The Kremlin did not prepare the Russian boys for their tasks, so it is no surprise that they are demoralized.
The civilian leadership made bad decisions based on their delusional expectations about what the Russian Armed Forces could do, and the Russian Generals have stolen so many things that they are not able to deliver what they promised the civilians.
You wrote: “Putin also understands that West wants him at The Hague or in prison or exiled or killed. It’s all or none for him. This is the zero-sum strategy that Putin has mastered and that the West has refused to play. What cards is he still holding?
He has very little cards because he made a series of bad decisions to go all-in. He didn’t have to do this. He could have gotten what he wanted in other ways. He decided to gamble everything and go all in. It was a reckless act. He had bad info. He had a delusional approach. He did not bring back enough of the wealth he had accumulated abroad. Had he known the costs, he wouldn’t have done it. He misread both the opponent’s hand as well as the costs.
What offer could Zelensky make that the Russians accept?
The minimum demands of the Ukrainians increase with each victory, while the maximum demands are reduced. The Ukrainians are still surviving and winning, and have not lost anything major. Mariupol is probably going to be gone in the next few days. Mariupol and Sea of Azov will probably be gone at this point unless there’s a major Ukrainain attack that would, even if it was successful, be very costly. The Russians are still holding on to Kharkiv and Chernihiv. In two to three weeks, it’s possible that the Russian army could be exhausted and ineffective in combat.
At some point, Ukraine must make a deal. It will be unpleasant. A deal will be reached sooner than later, in weeks rather than months. I’m afraid they will lose some territory in the endgame. I don’t really know if it involves neutrality. It depends on whether Ukrainian society is able to accept a neutrality agreement. Zelensky is a man who understands the average Ukrainian, and their mindset. That’s why we love him: he is a man for the people.
Ukraine will be forced to make a deal that will be very unpleasant… They will lose some territory in the endgame
You can also compare Ukraine with the Wild West. One could argue that it is more like a superhero film, with Zelensky playing Captain Ukraine. What is the secret of Ze phenomenon?
I had dinner with Zelensky as he was about become president. He didn’t seem like a great person. I saw him as a charismatic actor who was bright and charismatic, but was way over his head. He felt he wasn’t prepared for this. He was excited because he knew he would be president. He was on top of everything, but he was also afraid. And rightly so. His presidency was at best mediocre until three weeks ago. But now, I believe that something deep within him, about which I wrote in my article represents the deep resilience of average Ukrainians: their better nature, better qualities, and the fight for survival as opposed to a death-fight. Russia is in a death spiral and has a death-cult. It’s led by an old man who’s afraid of Covid, sitting in a bunker deep in Ural. He doesn’t understand reality and doesn’t even speak to his own advisors. The Security Council meeting on television was all about trapping them with him. They all knew it was to end up in The Hague, with Putin. It was a mafia move, a public statement that “you guys are with me.” Zelensky was hugging his men before the presidential villa, under the watchful eye of Russian drones who could easily bomb him at this point. He chose to film in front of it, rather than being literally entombed. Zelensky is the definition of virility. He’s spent his whole life preparing for this. He knows that he could die at this stage. He knows he will be remembered, no matter what, whether he wins the race or not. There will be statues dedicated to Zelinsky. The question is, will they be in Manitoba, Chicago and Toronto? It’s not certain if he will survive. He knows it. He faced this choice. He said, “I could leave and the country would collapse, or I could remain and fight and I would go down.”
This is the most important role anyone will have in the 21st Century. Zelensky has been a hero
What actor could dream of a stage bigger than this?
Indeed. This is the most important role anyone will ever play in the 21st Century. He is the greatest of heroes. Look at the elites the West produces. Look at the mediocrity, the horribleness, and the oligarchy that Western elites exhibit. Zelensky, Ukrainians and Americans are much healthier than Western Europeans, Canadians and Americans.
What do the Westerners see in Ukrainians and Ukraine’s leadership?
Absolutely. The world is filled with a reverence for something sacred, something bigger than ourselves. The Western cynicism is swept away when you watch Ukrainians fight to the death when they are outmanned, outgunned and outbombed. They’re standing next to this Jewish actor playing Churchill. But he has more empathy and charisma than Churchhill.
Interview with Vazha Tavberidze, RFE
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