**Europe‘s Peace Plan for Ukraine Faces Huge Hurdles**
Leaders from 19 mainly European countries met in London on Sunday to discuss a plan to bring peace to Ukraine. The UK and French leaders, Prime Minister Keir Starmer and President Emmanuel Macron, hope this will be the plan to eventually end the conflict.
At its heart is what Sir Keir calls the “coalition of the willing”, a group that would help guarantee peace if a deal is reached. But how easily can these challenges be overcome?
**Europe’s Military Strength**
One major problem is Europe’s military strength. Can European armies and arsenals muster a sufficient deterrent force to deploy to Ukraine? Which countries will be willing to send troops into an uncertain scenario, given doubts over US support?
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky estimates that it would need an international force of up to 200,000 troops to sustain a ceasefire along the 600-mile line of contact. However, Europe’s militaries have been depleted for decades.
**Air Power Crucial**
Air power would be crucial in any deterrent force, both for intelligence and surveillance, and for repelling Russian incursions. But Europe will struggle to come up with even a third of the required number of troops.
The US has significant capabilities in air-to-air refuelling and signals intelligence, which would be essential for a European force. A recent report by the International Institute for International Affairs stated that Europe’s reliance on Washington’s military capabilities will make pursuing “independence” a major challenge without significant investment.
**US Backstop**
Putting together a credible deterrent force to protect Ukraine would be extremely challenging without US military backup. The last thing President Trump wants is to commit US combat troops and air power to an unstable ceasefire line.
Sir Keir hopes that Europe can come up with a credible ceasefire proposal, which can then be presented to President Trump in the hope that he agrees to provide a US military backstop. However, this looks unlikely.
**Will Russia Accept it?**
Why would Russia accept a peace plan that demands it withdraw its forces from Ukrainian territory? Its ground forces are winning on the battlefield, and Ukraine has lost its greatest ally in this war: the US.
Without US support, Ukraine will struggle to hold back advancing Russian troops. President Putin has made it clear he will not accept the presence of Nato member troops in Ukraine. The bottom line is that the Kremlin has not given up on its maximalist aims for Ukraine.