NOTE: This is an analysis of a developing news story.
According to a recent statement made by Ukraine‘s chief of security Oleksiy Daniel (via Sky News), there was a nighttime helicopter resupply dropped for their forces in Mariupol. It is claimed that the helicopter dropped weapons to the defenders at the “Azovstal”, a factory under siege.
The source did not mention food or water, but given the time it took the Azovstal defenders to defend the steelworks, it’s highly likely that they were included. In order for a helicopter (also known as a Nape of the Earth) to deliver this cargo, it would have needed to fly extremely low in an urban area with incredibly dense enemy forces.
This claim has not received the same level of attention as other well-known propaganda. It almost appears that this capability is being deliberately kept under wraps to allow for further drops. The identification of the aircraft as a helicopter could even be a mistake in place of a large, anti-aircraft drone that can evade eyesight.
The ability to funnel weapons, ammunition, water, and food is a game changer. It could be a major problem for Russian forces trying to pacify the town, resulting in heavy losses of equipment and personnel. Many opposing reports claim that Ukrainian defenders were able to mount ambush and raid attacks on their enemies, despite the Russians’ claims to have taken the city. Resupply allows the destabilization of occupation forces to continue. This takes away soldiers and resources from other critical operations for Russia.
The only way to get new supplies to the defenders, besides this alleged daring heli-mission, is by smuggling overland. This could theoretically be done under the guise that families are simply trying to help other civilians. Humanitarian corridors are opened periodically, but they are often hampered by Russian offensives.
Since the beginning of the invasion, these defenders were completely encircled and had little or no meaningful contact with other units. Many Ukrainian Marines who were also fighting to defend the city were forced into surrendering due to a severe lack of ammunition and food. Estimates suggest that 1,000 to 2,000 fighters are still in the factory. This is along with civilians who fled the Russian bombardment, which often destroyed residential structures.
On social media, several videos and a graphic diagram of the Ukrainian soldiers showing the living conditions in the underground structure have been shared. The conditions are sparse, but there is a reasonable supply of food, clothes, and water. The six stories were built to protect tens of thousand steel workers from a Cold War nuclear strike. They have provided some comfort to the bunker and tunnel’s new resident.
Above ground, this scene is similar to the infamous Stalingrad Tractor Plant. The almost 11 square kilometers of property is covered with twisted metal, scattered debris and destroyed military vehicles. While Russia continues to launch aerial and ground attacks against the facility, defenders from the underground tunnels of over 24 kilometers have repeatedly refused surrender.
The Russians have redeployed their forces in the east, but progress has been slow and bloody. It’s likely that both Russia and Ukraine are locked in a static battle as more European and American supplies arrive. Each force will be forced to dig deep to consolidate gains, similar to the aftermath of 2014’s more covert invasion. The Kremlin is unlikely to accept a truce, and the provocation in Moldova, combined with a massive influx in arms and equipment into Ukraine, makes it unlikely that an end will be in sight.
Analysis by Michael Godwin
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